Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.267 vs 0.231 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / SD · 2026
Sheets, Gavin
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team SD
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
61
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.314
0.326
0.339
0.350
wOBA
0.325
0.341
0.359
0.376
0.392
ISO
0.162
0.176
0.191
0.206
0.219
K%
18.5%
19.7%
21.0%
22.3%
23.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
58
Exit velocity88.7
58
Hard-hit%43.4%
68
xBA0.323
52
xSLG0.537
60
xwOBA0.331
72
+15 vs proj
BB%11.1%
77
+33 vs proj
Bat speed71.8
77
K%20.5%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.4 · 1B
8
Arm Strength93.1 · 1B
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.4 · 1B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.6 · 1B
26
Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B
29
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.1% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0% · rebadged research
17
Correct Decisions61.7% · rebadged research
14
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.316 · borderline
9
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.265 · insufficient sample
88
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
24
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.355 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.346 · validated
35
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336 · validated
92
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| Sample | 341 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 538 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.296 to 0.360 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.140 | 0.100 to 0.216 | +/- 0.058 |
| Barrel% | 4.7% | 3.3% to 6.8% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.3% | 35.6% to 46.4% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 20.2% | 17.2% to 26.3% | +/- 4.6% |
| BB% | 8.2% | 6.7% to 11.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.239 to 0.316 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
364 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.231 |
| K% | 18.4% |
| BB% | 5.4% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
1756 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.267 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 7.1% |
| Barrel | 4.6% |