Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.287 vs 0.242 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / WSH · 2026
Abrams, Cj
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team WSH
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.372 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.325
0.337
0.350
0.363
0.375
wOBA
0.403
0.421
0.441
0.461
0.480
ISO
0.186
0.200
0.216
0.232
0.247
K%
17.1%
18.4%
19.9%
21.4%
22.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.3%
68
+45 vs proj
Barrel%6.6%
70
Bat speed70.6
67
Exit velocity89.7
65
Hard-hit%41.4%
57
K%19.4%
65
xBA0.357
79
xSLG0.623
79
xwOBA0.372
90
+25 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength87.0 · SS
62
Outs Above Avg-8.0 · SS
1
Range Runs-5.8 · SS
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · SS
77
Bolts5.0 · SS
56
SB Success Rate70.0% · SS
26
Sprint Speed28.4 · SS
81
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.7% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.305 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.303 · insufficient sample
5
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
23
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.382 · insufficient sample
1
Resists FastballwOBA 0.421 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
76
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
179 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.115 |
| Sample | 273 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 593 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.326 | 0.304 to 0.369 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.183 | 0.144 to 0.255 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 5.6% | 3.6% to 7.7% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.4% | 36.5% to 47.1% | +/- 5.3% |
| K% | 19.8% | 15.6% to 25.5% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 6.4% | 4.7% to 9.1% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.282 | 0.249 to 0.333 | +/- 0.042 |
vs LHP
684 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |
vs RHP
1616 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.287 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 5.8% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |