Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Caglianone, Jac
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.333 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.331 |
| Observed weight | 48% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.310
0.331
0.352
0.371
wOBA
0.274
0.294
0.316
0.338
0.357
ISO
0.125
0.140
0.157
0.174
0.189
K%
22.3%
24.2%
26.2%
28.2%
30.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.8%
39
Barrel%8.8%
87
+17 vs proj
Bat speed74.9
98
Exit velocity93.6
97
Hard-hit%57.4%
99
+34 vs proj
K%31.4%
9
-39 vs proj
xBA0.386
92
xSLG0.668
88
xwOBA0.333
70
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · RF
90
Arm Strength102.7 · RF
100
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
20
Range Runs-2.6 · RF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · RF
63
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
45
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.8% · rebadged research
52
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.4% · rebadged research
75
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
52
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.292 · borderline
32
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.257 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
95
Resists FastballwOBA 0.378 · validated
7
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.332 · validated
93
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
65
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
117 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.003 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.014 |
| Sample | 204 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 319 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.263 to 0.396 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.130 to 0.237 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 3.8% to 9.6% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.3% | 31.8% to 51.0% | +/- 9.6% |
| K% | 22.3% | 16.5% to 29.2% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 4.6% to 12.0% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.252 | 0.207 to 0.317 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.160 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 3.7% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
171 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |