Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Caglianone, Jac
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
96
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.356 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.349 |
| Observed weight | 72% |
xwOBA
0.322
0.335
0.349
0.363
0.375
wOBA
0.343
0.355
0.369
0.383
0.395
ISO
0.171
0.181
0.193
0.204
0.214
K%
22.5%
23.6%
24.9%
26.3%
27.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
92
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity93.1
97
Hard-hit%54.0%
98
+24 vs proj
xBA0.391
97
xSLG0.695
95
xwOBA0.356
94
+16 vs proj
BB%6.1%
25
-26 vs proj
Bat speed75.2
98
K%26.4%
30
-22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
79
Arm Strength102.7 · RF
98
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
25
Range Runs-8.0 · RF
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · RF
75
SB Success Rate85.7% · RF
66
Sprint Speed27.0 · RF
38
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.4% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions63.7% · rebadged research
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · borderline
4
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · insufficient sample
80
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.317 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.312 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.388 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
68
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
231 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| Sample | 554 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 319 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.263 to 0.396 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.130 to 0.237 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 3.8% to 9.6% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.3% | 31.8% to 51.0% | +/- 9.6% |
| K% | 22.3% | 16.5% to 29.2% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 4.6% to 12.0% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.252 | 0.207 to 0.318 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.160 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 3.7% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
171 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.171 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |