Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / KC · 2026
Caglianone, Jac
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team KC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
94
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.329 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.357 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.346 |
| Observed weight | 62% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.329
0.346
0.363
0.378
wOBA
0.316
0.331
0.348
0.365
0.381
ISO
0.161
0.174
0.188
0.201
0.214
K%
23.4%
24.9%
26.5%
28.1%
29.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.9%
90
+16 vs proj
Exit velocity92.9
95
Hard-hit%55.4%
98
+31 vs proj
xBA0.399
96
xSLG0.729
96
xwOBA0.357
87
BB%7.3%
34
Bat speed75.6
99
K%29.6%
16
-33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.9 · RF
94
Arm Strength102.7 · RF
100
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · RF
22
Range Runs-3.2 · RF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · RF
70
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
42
SB Success Rate100.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.8% · rebadged research
41
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5% · rebadged research
81
Correct Decisions66.5% · rebadged research
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · borderline
14
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.252 · insufficient sample
98
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.313 · validated thin sample
4
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.315 · insufficient sample
88
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377 · validated
5
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.333 · validated
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.018 |
| Sample | 358 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 319 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 10 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.330 | 0.263 to 0.396 | +/- 0.066 |
| ISO | 0.165 | 0.130 to 0.237 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.6% | 3.8% to 9.6% | +/- 2.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.3% | 31.8% to 51.0% | +/- 9.6% |
| K% | 22.3% | 16.5% to 29.2% | +/- 6.3% |
| BB% | 8.5% | 4.6% to 12.0% | +/- 3.7% |
| BABIP | 0.252 | 0.207 to 0.317 | +/- 0.055 |
vs LHP
67 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.160 |
| K% | 11.4% |
| BB% | 3.7% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
171 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.170 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 4.7% |
| Barrel | 4.7% |