Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Goodman, Hunter
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
88
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.309 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.334 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.325 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.301
0.313
0.325
0.338
0.350
wOBA
0.380
0.395
0.411
0.428
0.443
ISO
0.237
0.251
0.267
0.283
0.297
K%
25.9%
27.1%
28.6%
30.0%
31.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.8%
95
Exit velocity91.4
89
Hard-hit%47.9%
85
xBA0.372
89
xSLG0.737
96
xwOBA0.334
74
BB%8.5%
49
+28 vs proj
Bat speed73.9
93
K%31.0%
13
-30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs0.7 · C
82
Catcher Throwing-0.2 · C
46
Framing Runs-1.8 · C
27
Pop Time1.9 · C
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.9 · C
3
SB Success Rate50.0% · C
3
Sprint Speed27.3 · C
48
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 54.2% · rebadged research
9
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions61.0% · rebadged research
11
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
11
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.280 · insufficient sample
45
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.338 · insufficient sample
33
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317 · validated
87
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.412 · validated
2
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
168 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.090 |
| Sample | 400 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 523 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 27 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.273 to 0.354 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.207 | 0.172 to 0.305 | +/- 0.066 |
| Barrel% | 7.8% | 5.6% to 10.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 46.3% | 39.6% to 51.3% | +/- 5.9% |
| K% | 23.6% | 19.1% to 30.0% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% | 3.8% to 8.9% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.299 | 0.250 to 0.356 | +/- 0.053 |
vs LHP
252 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.257 |
| K% | 20.0% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 7.8% |
vs RHP
663 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.239 |
| K% | 20.4% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 6.7% |