Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.263 vs 0.218 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026
Crow-Armstrong, Pete
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team CHC
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
81
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.324 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.364 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.350 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.326
0.337
0.350
0.363
0.375
wOBA
0.369
0.383
0.399
0.415
0.430
ISO
0.194
0.205
0.218
0.231
0.243
K%
22.2%
23.4%
24.8%
26.1%
27.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
70
Exit velocity88.7
57
Hard-hit%48.1%
86
+27 vs proj
xBA0.373
90
xSLG0.679
91
xwOBA0.364
90
+26 vs proj
BB%11.3%
79
+60 vs proj
Bat speed72.0
79
K%25.8%
32
-19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.9 · CF
99
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
97
Outs Above Avg16.0 · CF
100
Range Runs14.6 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.7 · CF
93
Bolts25.0 · CF
85
SB Success Rate79.2% · CF
42
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
96
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2% · rebadged research
76
Correct Decisions64.1% · rebadged research
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.318 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
76
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.370 · insufficient sample
5
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390 · validated
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
178 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.044 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.079 |
| Sample | 426 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 584 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 22 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.288 to 0.377 | +/- 0.045 |
| ISO | 0.179 | 0.150 to 0.252 | +/- 0.051 |
| Barrel% | 7.2% | 4.7% to 9.5% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 41.1% | 34.7% to 47.3% | +/- 6.3% |
| K% | 22.0% | 17.4% to 28.3% | +/- 5.4% |
| BB% | 5.8% | 3.5% to 9.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.289 | 0.234 to 0.334 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
299 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.218 |
| K% | 21.1% |
| BB% | 3.1% |
| Barrel | 4.9% |
vs RHP
832 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.263 |
| K% | 18.6% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 6.6% |