Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / CHC · 2026

Crow-Armstrong, Pete

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.321 xwOBA
Range
0.288 to 0.377
Live Δ
yes
Team CHC Archetype Balanced regular Age 24 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.324
xwOBA current pace0.345
xwOBA rolling p500.335
Observed weight54%
xwOBA
0.306 0.320 0.335 0.350 0.364
wOBA
0.286 0.304 0.324 0.343 0.361
ISO
0.136 0.149 0.164 0.179 0.192
K%
21.1% 22.6% 24.3% 25.9% 27.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
49 +31 vs proj
Barrel%6.2%
65
Bat speed71.5
75
Exit velocity89.6
64
Hard-hit%49.4%
88 +33 vs proj
K%25.6%
31 -17 vs proj
xBA0.352
76
xSLG0.638
82
xwOBA0.345
78 +18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.8 · CF
100
Arm Strength101.0 · CF
97
Outs Above Avg11.0 · CF
100
Range Runs10.6 · CF
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.5 · CF
89
Bolts13.0 · CF
78
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
39
Sprint Speed29.2 · CF
94
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.1% · rebadged research
20
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions64.4% · rebadged research
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
62
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
67
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · insufficient sample
36
Resists FastballwOBA 0.300 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389 · validated
6
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Crow-Armstrong, Pete · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.3112026-05-19: 0.3162026-05-21: 0.3082026-05-23: 0.3142026-05-24: 0.3142026-05-25: 0.3232026-05-26: 0.3262026-05-28: 0.3312026-05-29: 0.3312026-05-30: 0.3292026-05-31: 0.3302026-06-01: 0.345 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Pete Crow-Armstrong's tools (87) outpace production (84) by 3 points. Primary finding: excessive fly-ball angle — producing popups instead of line drives.

See full optimization →

Launch Angle Too High
-11.5° Current 32° → Target 20°

Flatten swing plane to bring average LA into the 15-22° window

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

153 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Crow-Armstrong, Pete · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsPull 10%Center field third: 73% of plotted batted ballsCenter 73%Right field third: 18% of plotted batted ballsOppo 18% LF 355 CF 400 RF 353 2026-03-20 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 71.1 / LA 39.02026-03-20 · field out · ST · popup · EV 74.1 / LA 60.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 95.3 / LA 46.02026-03-22 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 85.0 / LA 24.02026-03-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 82.1 / LA -20.02026-03-26 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 41.1 / LA -27.02026-03-26 · field out · ST · popup · EV 78.8 / LA 61.02026-03-26 · single · KC · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA -10.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 39.9 / LA -14.02026-03-28 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 111.5 / LA 4.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 61.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 31.02026-03-29 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 52.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 91.6 / LA -20.02026-03-29 · field out · SV · fly_ball · EV 76.4 / LA 45.02026-03-30 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 101.4 / LA -1.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · popup · EV 87.8 / LA 74.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 99.6 / LA -17.02026-03-31 · sac bunt · KC · ground_ball · EV 45.0 / LA -27.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA 9.02026-04-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 4.02026-04-03 · double · SL · popup · EV 76.9 / LA 52.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · popup · EV 69.3 / LA 84.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.2 / LA 36.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 1.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 35.02026-04-05 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA 2.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 82.02026-04-05 · field out · FS · popup · EV 63.5 / LA 28.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 108.7 / LA 6.02026-04-06 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 105.5 / LA 2.02026-04-06 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.4 / LA 44.02026-04-07 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.4 / LA 39.02026-04-07 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 12.02026-04-07 · force out · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.6 / LA -21.02026-04-07 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.3 / LA 27.02026-04-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 34.6 / LA -46.02026-04-08 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.8 / LA 79.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.4 / LA 39.02026-04-08 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA 6.02026-04-10 · grounded into double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 78.1 / LA -1.02026-04-10 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 32.02026-04-10 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.7 / LA -6.02026-04-11 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 105.2 / LA -2.02026-04-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 100.9 / LA 67.02026-04-12 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.5 / LA -19.02026-04-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.8 / LA -13.02026-04-13 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 106.4 / LA 14.02026-04-13 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 35.02026-04-14 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 82.4 / LA 12.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 82.7 / LA 34.02026-04-14 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 107.4 / LA 12.02026-04-15 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 94.3 / LA -18.02026-04-15 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.0 / LA -26.02026-04-15 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 81.7 / LA 14.02026-04-17 · field out · FO · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 45.02026-04-17 · field out · FO · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA 0.02026-04-18 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 79.1 / LA 59.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.9 / LA 22.02026-04-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.1 / LA 49.02026-04-19 · triple · SI · line_drive · EV 109.5 / LA 15.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 80.3 / LA 40.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 59.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 58.2 / LA 1.02026-04-20 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.3 / LA 77.02026-04-21 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -6.02026-04-21 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 38.5 / LA -70.02026-04-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 54.2 / LA -62.02026-04-21 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 2.02026-04-22 · double · FS · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 11.02026-04-22 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 64.7 / LA 31.02026-04-24 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 103.5 / LA 8.02026-04-24 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.8 / LA -9.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.3 / LA 77.02026-04-26 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 41.02026-04-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 76.9 / LA 16.02026-04-27 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 104.5 / LA -2.02026-04-27 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 106.3 / LA 26.02026-04-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -5.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.6 / LA -24.02026-04-29 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 86.3 / LA -2.02026-04-29 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 105.4 / LA 24.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 104.7 / LA -5.02026-05-01 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 5.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.8 / LA -79.02026-05-01 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 92.9 / LA 19.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.1 / LA 32.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.2 / LA 29.02026-05-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 93.0 / LA 8.02026-05-03 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 110.9 / LA 5.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 93.1 / LA 20.02026-05-03 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.0 / LA -23.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 65.7 / LA -27.02026-05-04 · triple · FS · fly_ball · EV 103.6 / LA 35.02026-05-04 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 39.02026-05-05 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.1 / LA 40.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 108.5 / LA 11.02026-05-05 · field out · SV · ground_ball · EV 98.4 / LA -13.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.3 / LA 49.02026-05-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.1 / LA 2.02026-05-06 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.5 / LA 23.02026-05-07 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -18.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 84.1 / LA -38.02026-05-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 89.6 / LA 38.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 108.6 / LA 9.02026-05-08 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 23.02026-05-08 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 48.4 / LA -22.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 42.02026-05-09 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -12.02026-05-09 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -17.02026-05-10 · field out · SL · popup · EV 84.3 / LA 80.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.1 / LA -5.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · popup · EV 97.5 / LA 69.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · popup · EV 40.2 / LA 51.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 50.2 / LA -76.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · popup · EV 95.1 / LA 68.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 81.5 / LA 46.02026-05-14 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 67.7 / LA 21.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA -6.02026-05-15 · fielders choice out · KC · ground_ball · EV 28.8 / LA 6.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 98.1 / LA 11.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 21.02026-05-16 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 32.02026-05-16 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.4 / LA 35.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 94.3 / LA 20.02026-05-17 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 80.6 / LA 13.02026-05-17 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 46.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 106.5 / LA -7.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 58.02026-05-19 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 70.4 / LA 11.02026-05-19 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.2 / LA -15.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 4.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · popup · EV 65.5 / LA 78.02026-05-22 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 104.7 / LA 31.02026-05-23 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 97.5 / LA 27.02026-05-23 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 100.5 / LA 12.02026-05-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 32.02026-05-24 · sac fly · CH · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 31.02026-05-25 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 105.2 / LA 10.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 101.3 / LA 9.02026-05-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.9 / LA 6.02026-05-25 · field out · FF · popup · EV 96.1 / LA 66.02026-05-26 · field out · FF · popup · EV 92.2 / LA 66.02026-05-26 · force out · FS · ground_ball · EV 95.4 / LA 5.02026-05-26 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.6 / LA 9.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 57.02026-05-27 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 21.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 89.8 / LA 20.02026-05-31 · field out · ST · popup · EV 89.3 / LA 79.02026-05-31 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 38.02026-05-31 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 107.1 / LA 8.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Crow-Armstrong, Pete · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 34.3° Length 7.3 ft Ideal path 53% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Crow-Armstrong, Pete · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 15.9° Direction -8.1° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Crow-Armstrong, Pete · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.8 mph Hard swing rate 40% Whiff / swing 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Crow-Armstrong, Pete · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 46%46%Chase: 38%38%Whiff: 25%25%Zone contact: 86%86%Contact: 75%75%Hard hit: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.263 vs 0.218 xwOBA split).
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.024
wOBA Δ+0.003
Sample258 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances584----
Home Runs22----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3210.288 to 0.377+/- 0.045
ISO0.1790.150 to 0.252+/- 0.051
Barrel%7.2%4.7% to 9.5%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%41.1%34.7% to 47.3%+/- 6.3%
K%22.0%17.4% to 28.3%+/- 5.4%
BB%5.8%3.5% to 9.0%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2890.234 to 0.334+/- 0.050
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

299 career PA

xwOBA0.218
K%21.1%
BB%3.1%
Barrel4.9%
vs RHP

832 career PA

xwOBA0.263
K%18.6%
BB%4.3%
Barrel6.6%