Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / CWS · 2026
Montgomery, Colson
Young power bat with breakout ceiling
Team CWS
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
76
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.317 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 65% |
xwOBA
0.298
0.309
0.322
0.334
0.345
wOBA
0.318
0.333
0.349
0.365
0.379
ISO
0.195
0.209
0.225
0.241
0.255
K%
27.6%
28.8%
30.2%
31.6%
32.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.4%
82
Exit velocity89.2
64
Hard-hit%44.1%
72
xBA0.345
75
xSLG0.694
93
xwOBA0.324
67
BB%8.1%
44
Bat speed74.3
96
K%32.3%
8
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · SS
21
Arm Strength82.5 · SS
20
Outs Above Avg2.0 · SS
77
Range Runs3.6 · SS
83
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.5 · SS
10
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
29
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.2% · rebadged research
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.1% · rebadged research
60
Correct Decisions65.8% · rebadged research
46
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · borderline
64
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.311 · insufficient sample
3
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.319 · validated thin sample
2
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.364 · insufficient sample
6
Resists FastballwOBA 0.299 · validated
97
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
23
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
162 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.028 |
| Sample | 405 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 342 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.320 | 0.288 to 0.363 | +/- 0.038 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.137 to 0.275 | +/- 0.069 |
| Barrel% | 6.7% | 4.2% to 8.9% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.2% | 34.0% to 50.3% | +/- 8.1% |
| K% | 28.2% | 21.7% to 32.1% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.4% | 5.9% to 12.0% | +/- 3.1% |
| BABIP | 0.292 | 0.223 to 0.355 | +/- 0.066 |
vs LHP
83 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.168 |
| K% | 14.3% |
| BB% | 4.0% |
| Barrel | 3.4% |
vs RHP
205 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.189 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 5.3% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |