Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2024	46	4	4	0	0	.098	.196	.098	.294
2025	294	30	57	11	3	.217	.299	.388	.687
2026	454	64	94	24	4	.228	.297	.461	.758
3 Seasons	794	98	155	35	7	.216	.292	.413	.705

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

88

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

77

Defense3 metrics

55

Speed2 metrics

66

Plate skills10 metrics

43

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26

xwOBA preseason	0.284
xwOBA current pace	0.336
xwOBA rolling p50	0.319
Observed weight	68%

xwOBA

0.295 0.307 0.319 0.332 0.344

wOBA

0.313 0.326 0.341 0.356 0.369

ISO

0.182 0.195 0.209 0.223 0.236

K%

27.1% 28.3% 29.7% 31.1% 32.3%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%8.1%

89 +42 vs proj

Exit velocity91.4

90

Hard-hit%47.5%

88 +40 vs proj

xBA0.353

85

xSLG0.718

96

xwOBA0.336

83 +49 vs proj

BB%8.3%

49

Bat speed74.0

94

K%30.3%

16

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength90.4 · 3B

75

Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B

47

Range Runs-0.9 · 3B

43

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs1.4 · 3B

71

Sprint Speed27.9 · 3B

61

SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B

Small sample

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-09-26

Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.1% · rebadged research

59

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research

52

Correct Decisions66.4% · rebadged research

52

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103

59

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.255 · borderline

97

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample

17

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.300 · validated thin sample

15

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · insufficient sample

47

Resists FastballwOBA 0.369 · validated

12

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated

20

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Coby Mayo's production (76) outpaces the tools grade (74) by 2 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Also flagged: Contact-Discipline Mismatch. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low

+10.5° Current 6° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.

Contact-Discipline Mismatch

Hold Hold Hold Hold Attack Hold Hold Hold Hold

Shorten swing against breaking balls while maintaining bat speed on fastballs

Protected takes / Chase risk

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

203 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.2σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.341

xwOBA (deserved)0.336

Mayo’s wOBA sits at 0.341, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.336 — a gap of 0.005, -0.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 468 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Goodman, Hunter COL · R	0.76	Swing lengthGround-ball rate	Player · Projection
Contreras, Willson BOS · R	0.74	xwOBA on contactSweet-spot rate	Player · Projection
Langeliers, Shea ATH · R	0.68	Bat speedWalk rate	Player · Projection
Crow-Armstrong, Pete CHC · L	0.66	Barrel rateIn-zone contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	4	2026-09-18	Impact contact carried uneven swing decisions
Fielding	16	2026-09-23	4 chances \| 0 difficult plays \| Run Exp -1.197

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| R
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-04-12 vs SF0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Age	24
Height	6' 5"
Weight	225 lb
Debut	2024-08-02

xwOBA Δ	+0.047
wOBA Δ	+0.051

Hitter Projections 20260.290 xwOBA \| 11 HR	Projection
2026-08-15 @ TB0 HR \| 0 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	0-3 \| 2 K
2026-04-20 @ KC0 HR \| 0 RBI / 1 Ch \| 0 E	0-0 \| R
2026-04-17 @ CLE0 HR \| 0 RBI / 2 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| BB, 2 K
2026-04-15 vs AZ0 HR \| 0 RBI / 3 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| 2B, R
2026-04-12 vs SF0 HR \| 1 RBI / 0 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, RBI

Coby Mayo

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail