Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / PHI · 2026

Harper, Bryce

On-base driven regular with stable floor

Primary
0.358 xwOBA
Range
0.321 to 0.414
Live Δ
yes
Team PHI Archetype Balanced regular Age 34 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
xwOBA preseason0.357
xwOBA current pace0.410
xwOBA rolling p500.385
Observed weight53%
xwOBA
0.355 0.369 0.385 0.401 0.416
wOBA
0.350 0.369 0.389 0.410 0.429
ISO
0.180 0.198 0.219 0.240 0.258
K%
17.7% 19.0% 20.4% 21.8% 23.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.5%
89
Barrel%9.5%
92 +16 vs proj
Bat speed72.4
84
Exit velocity89.8
65
Hard-hit%42.9%
63
K%19.0%
67 +22 vs proj
xBA0.373
88
xSLG0.728
94
xwOBA0.410
98 +16 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-7.0 · 1B
2
Range Runs-5.3 · 1B
4
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate60.0% · 1B
14
Sprint Speed27.0 · 1B
42
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-06-01
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.0% · rebadged research
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.5% · rebadged research
91
Correct Decisions65.9% · rebadged research
47
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline
1
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.277 · insufficient sample
44
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
17
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
74
Resists FastballwOBA 0.373 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
17
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Harper, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 2026-05-17: 0.4172026-05-19: 0.4162026-05-21: 0.4102026-05-23: 0.4052026-05-24: 0.4062026-05-25: 0.4052026-05-26: 0.4102026-05-28: 0.4132026-05-29: 0.4132026-05-30: 0.4132026-05-31: 0.4092026-06-01: 0.410 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

167 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Harper, Bryce · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 14% of plotted batted ballsOppo 14% LF 329 CF 401 RF 330 2026-03-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.6 / LA 10.02026-03-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 94.9 / LA -14.02026-03-22 · double · FC · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 39.02026-03-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.7 / LA -12.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 24.02026-03-23 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 99.0 / LA 22.02026-03-26 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 60.4 / LA 36.02026-03-26 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -14.02026-03-28 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA 9.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.1 / LA -47.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 89.7 / LA 3.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -2.02026-03-28 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 31.02026-03-29 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 93.9 / LA 22.02026-03-30 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 101.0 / LA -15.02026-03-30 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.2 / LA 28.02026-03-30 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.0 / LA 36.02026-03-30 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA -7.02026-03-31 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 62.2 / LA 4.02026-03-31 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 35.02026-03-31 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 80.8 / LA 43.02026-03-31 · field error · FS · ground_ball · EV 75.6 / LA -12.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.4 / LA 36.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 21.02026-04-01 · home run · SV · fly_ball · EV 106.0 / LA 25.02026-04-01 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.4 / LA 60.02026-04-03 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 79.4 / LA 25.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 97.5 / LA 20.02026-04-03 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.9 / LA 25.02026-04-04 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 80.8 / LA -11.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.2 / LA 31.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 99.4 / LA 19.02026-04-04 · fielders choice out · CH · ground_ball · EV 59.9 / LA -37.02026-04-05 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA -6.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 76.5 / LA 9.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 71.6 / LA -36.02026-04-06 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 8.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.7 / LA -9.02026-04-06 · double · SL · fly_ball · EV 112.5 / LA 21.02026-04-07 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 74.3 / LA 2.02026-04-07 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 16.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA 3.02026-04-08 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 9.02026-04-08 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 45.9 / LA -40.02026-04-10 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 9.02026-04-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 101.4 / LA 32.02026-04-10 · double · SV · line_drive · EV 86.8 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -2.02026-04-11 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.5 / LA 23.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 34.02026-04-12 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 96.4 / LA -2.02026-04-12 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 3.02026-04-12 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 111.8 / LA 20.02026-04-13 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 94.7 / LA 8.02026-04-13 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 95.8 / LA 44.02026-04-13 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.2 / LA -2.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 41.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 108.0 / LA -22.02026-04-14 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 91.7 / LA 34.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.7 / LA 49.02026-04-15 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.8 / LA 25.02026-04-17 · triple · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA 3.02026-04-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 12.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 42.02026-04-17 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 75.1 / LA 13.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.4 / LA -7.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 64.6 / LA 41.02026-04-19 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 107.9 / LA 12.02026-04-19 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 66.2 / LA -3.02026-04-20 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 106.4 / LA 0.02026-04-20 · field out · FC · popup · EV 67.7 / LA 82.02026-04-20 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 81.2 / LA 8.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · popup · EV 68.0 / LA 59.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · popup · EV 84.5 / LA 81.02026-04-21 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 106.9 / LA 27.02026-04-22 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 72.3 / LA -45.02026-04-22 · field out · KC · line_drive · EV 64.4 / LA 20.02026-04-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 99.2 / LA 7.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 42.02026-04-23 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 88.0 / LA 26.02026-04-23 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 14.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · popup · EV 93.5 / LA 68.02026-04-24 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 78.5 / LA 3.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.3 / LA 26.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · popup · EV 63.6 / LA 65.02026-04-25 · sac fly · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.1 / LA 28.02026-04-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.3 / LA 2.02026-04-25 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 97.3 / LA 61.02026-04-25 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.8 / LA 6.02026-04-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -29.02026-04-28 · double play · FS · ground_ball · EV 64.2 / LA -69.02026-04-28 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 87.4 / LA 44.02026-04-28 · double · FS · fly_ball · EV 85.2 / LA 33.02026-04-28 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 90.4 / LA 13.02026-04-30 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -25.02026-04-30 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 15.02026-04-30 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -5.02026-04-30 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.4 / LA -18.02026-04-30 · field out · SI · popup · EV 59.9 / LA 46.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.0 / LA 3.02026-05-01 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 88.1 / LA -12.02026-05-01 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 108.3 / LA 18.02026-05-02 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -13.02026-05-03 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.4 / LA 7.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 44.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA -9.02026-05-03 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 25.02026-05-04 · double · CH · ground_ball · EV 110.3 / LA 7.02026-05-04 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 103.3 / LA 28.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.2 / LA -30.02026-05-04 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 82.1 / LA 11.02026-05-05 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 95.9 / LA 2.02026-05-05 · home run · ST · fly_ball · EV 97.9 / LA 28.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 72.0 / LA -2.02026-05-05 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 107.2 / LA 34.02026-05-06 · fielders choice · CH · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -2.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 48.5 / LA 18.02026-05-06 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 6.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 86.5 / LA -20.02026-05-07 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 102.1 / LA 15.02026-05-08 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 81.0 / LA 20.02026-05-08 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 82.0 / LA 14.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 85.9 / LA 24.02026-05-08 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 84.4 / LA 0.02026-05-10 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 101.8 / LA 29.02026-05-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -9.02026-05-10 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 79.4 / LA -9.02026-05-12 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 94.9 / LA 8.02026-05-12 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 100.7 / LA 20.02026-05-13 · double play · CU · line_drive · EV 93.2 / LA 8.02026-05-13 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.9 / LA -19.02026-05-14 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 94.1 / LA 12.02026-05-14 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 78.3 / LA 41.02026-05-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -37.02026-05-14 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA -8.02026-05-15 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 78.9 / LA 19.02026-05-15 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 17.02026-05-15 · single · FS · line_drive · EV 88.4 / LA 19.02026-05-15 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 101.0 / LA 9.02026-05-15 · single · SL · fly_ball · EV 99.8 / LA 35.02026-05-16 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.3 / LA 28.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.0 / LA -5.02026-05-17 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 103.7 / LA 35.02026-05-18 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.8 / LA -5.02026-05-18 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 30.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 82.8 / LA 22.02026-05-19 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 108.8 / LA 4.02026-05-20 · sac fly · FF · line_drive · EV 78.7 / LA 29.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 103.9 / LA 17.02026-05-20 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.4 / LA 38.02026-05-22 · double · FC · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA 3.02026-05-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 101.8 / LA 21.02026-05-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA -10.02026-05-22 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 83.6 / LA -28.02026-05-23 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 82.8 / LA 48.02026-05-23 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 110.4 / LA 7.02026-05-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 9.02026-05-23 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 7.02026-05-24 · force out · CU · ground_ball · EV 67.0 / LA -13.02026-05-24 · sac fly · SL · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 23.02026-05-25 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -12.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 32.02026-05-26 · home run · FC · line_drive · EV 113.5 / LA 22.02026-05-27 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 99.3 / LA 5.02026-05-27 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 76.6 / LA -7.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -23.02026-05-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 51.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics SWING PATH Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Swing Path Harper, Bryce · aggregate bat-tracking arc Swing tilt 37.2° Length 7.5 ft Ideal path 45% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics ATTACK ANGLE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Attack Angle Harper, Bryce · aggregate attack vector Attack angle 14.2° Direction -6.2° MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Harper, Bryce · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 73.5 mph Hard swing rate 40% Whiff / swing 28% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Harper, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 43%43%Chase: 34%34%Whiff: 27%27%Zone contact: 85%85%Contact: 73%73%Hard hit: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.052
wOBA Δ+0.031
Sample252 PA

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances574----
Home Runs25----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3580.321 to 0.414+/- 0.047
ISO0.1950.131 to 0.280+/- 0.074
Barrel%7.1%5.2% to 9.9%+/- 2.3%
Hard-Hit%46.2%39.3% to 53.0%+/- 6.8%
K%22.7%17.9% to 26.9%+/- 4.5%
BB%11.7%10.5% to 14.9%+/- 2.2%
BABIP0.3150.263 to 0.359+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

2065 career PA

xwOBA0.311
K%19.7%
BB%9.3%
Barrel6.4%
vs RHP

4435 career PA

xwOBA0.323
K%18.1%
BB%11.7%
Barrel6.8%