The Comp Constellation

Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.

strong match (0.55+) moderate (0.45 to 0.55) weaker (< 0.45) star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles

Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Arenado, Nolan in signal, the comp in amber.

AZ · bats R · 361 PA

Ranked comps for Arenado, Nolan

#PlayerSimilarityAgrees onDiffers onOpen
01 Varsho, Daulton TOR · L · 328 PA 0.61 Barrel ratexwOBA on contactWalk rate Swing length -1.9zSprint speed +1.5zMax exit velocity +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
02 Paredes, Isaac HOU · R · 393 PA 0.60 Sprint speedxwOBA on contactHard-hit rate Ground-ball rate -1.6zSwing length -1.5zBat speed -1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
03 Bellinger, Cody NYY · L · 419 PA 0.58 Ground-ball rateBarrel rateChase rate Sprint speed +1.6zAvg exit velocity +1.3zSwing length -1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
04 Semien, Marcus NYM · R · 338 PA 0.57 Max exit velocityWhiff rateStrikeout rate Sprint speed +2.1zSwing length -1.5zSweet-spot rate +1.0z Player Projection Swing lab
05 Adames, Willy SF · R · 396 PA 0.56 Chase rateIsolated powerBarrel rate Sprint speed +1.8zStrikeout rate +1.2zAvg exit velocity +1.1z Player Projection Swing lab
06 Bell, Josh MIN · L · 394 PA 0.54 Fly-ball rateIsolated powerStrikeout rate Max exit velocity +1.8zAvg exit velocity +1.5zOppo rate +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
07 Tucker, Kyle LAD · L · 400 PA 0.49 Whiff rateMax exit velocityGround-ball rate Swing length -2.6zWalk rate +1.4zAvg exit velocity +1.3z Player Projection Swing lab
08 Yastrzemski, Mike ATL · L · 273 PA 0.49 Whiff rateBat speedGround-ball rate Swing length -2.5zAvg exit velocity +1.6zSprint speed +1.4z Player Projection Swing lab
09 Larnach, Trevor MIN · L · 307 PA 0.49 In-zone contactGround-ball ratePull rate Swing length -3.0zSweet-spot rate +1.4zSprint speed +1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
10 Springer, George TOR · R · 312 PA 0.48 xwOBA on contactFly-ball rateWhiff rate Swing length -2.3zMax exit velocity +1.4zChase rate -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab
11 Altuve, Jose HOU · R · 332 PA 0.48 Avg exit velocityOppo rateMax exit velocity Swing length -2.2zGround-ball rate +1.7zSprint speed +1.7z Player Projection Swing lab
12 Pasquantino, Vinnie KC · L · 311 PA 0.45 xwOBA on contactBarrel rateSweet-spot rate Swing length -3.0zAvg exit velocity +1.2zIsolated power -1.2z Player Projection Swing lab

Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.