Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.278 vs 0.229 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Larnach, Trevor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
55
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.327 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.328 |
| Observed weight | 67% |
xwOBA
0.306
0.317
0.328
0.340
0.350
wOBA
0.337
0.351
0.366
0.382
0.395
ISO
0.152
0.163
0.176
0.189
0.201
K%
17.3%
18.5%
19.9%
21.2%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
62
Exit velocity87.5
45
Hard-hit%36.5%
41
-34 vs proj
xBA0.326
59
xSLG0.497
50
xwOBA0.327
74
BB%10.2%
71
Bat speed70.2
59
K%18.0%
77
+18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · LF
88
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
30
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-4.1 · LF
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · LF
45
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.0% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.8% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions64.7% · rebadged research
34
Resists FastballwOBA 0.372 · validated
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.327 · borderline
7
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · insufficient sample
17
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · insufficient sample
61
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
40
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
202 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.005 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 449 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 534 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.300 to 0.365 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.145 to 0.262 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.1% to 7.9% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.6% | 41.3% to 51.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 21.3% | 17.5% to 29.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.3% to 12.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.245 to 0.336 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
326 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.229 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1418 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |