Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.278 vs 0.229 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Larnach, Trevor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.312 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.322 |
| Observed weight | 46% |
xwOBA
0.296
0.308
0.322
0.336
0.348
wOBA
0.338
0.359
0.384
0.408
0.429
ISO
0.131
0.148
0.166
0.185
0.201
K%
18.2%
19.9%
21.9%
23.8%
25.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%12.9%
86
+27 vs proj
Barrel%4.8%
46
-18 vs proj
Bat speed68.8
38
Exit velocity86.2
24
Hard-hit%30.6%
15
-51 vs proj
K%19.9%
62
xBA0.302
31
xSLG0.457
33
xwOBA0.312
54
-15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.9 · LF
96
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
41
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · LF
20
Range Runs-2.1 · LF
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · LF
60
Sprint Speed26.6 · LF
30
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.7% · rebadged research
61
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3% · rebadged research
15
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.257 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.352 · insufficient sample
12
Resists FastballwOBA 0.352 · validated
29
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
42
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
41
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
113 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.019 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.052 |
| Sample | 186 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 534 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.300 to 0.365 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.145 to 0.262 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.1% to 7.9% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.6% | 41.3% to 51.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 21.3% | 17.5% to 29.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.3% to 12.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.245 to 0.336 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
326 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.229 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1418 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |