Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.278 vs 0.229 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Larnach, Trevor
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.330 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.342 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.337 |
| Observed weight | 58% |
xwOBA
0.313
0.324
0.337
0.350
0.361
wOBA
0.359
0.376
0.395
0.414
0.431
ISO
0.147
0.160
0.176
0.191
0.205
K%
16.7%
18.1%
19.7%
21.3%
22.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
57
Exit velocity87.0
36
Hard-hit%35.0%
32
-37 vs proj
xBA0.333
62
xSLG0.512
51
xwOBA0.342
80
BB%11.4%
80
+20 vs proj
Bat speed69.9
53
K%16.9%
80
+22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · LF
89
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
35
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · LF
2
Range Runs-4.1 · LF
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
50
Sprint Speed26.9 · LF
37
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
57
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7% · rebadged research
26
Correct Decisions63.8% · rebadged research
27
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
11
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263 · validated thin sample
90
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.374 · validated
8
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355 · validated
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
45
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
142 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 307 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 534 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.332 | 0.300 to 0.365 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.190 | 0.145 to 0.262 | +/- 0.059 |
| Barrel% | 6.2% | 4.1% to 7.9% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.6% | 41.3% to 51.2% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 21.3% | 17.5% to 29.6% | +/- 6.0% |
| BB% | 9.4% | 7.3% to 12.3% | +/- 2.5% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.245 to 0.336 | +/- 0.045 |
vs LHP
326 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.229 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1418 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.278 |
| K% | 18.3% |
| BB% | 8.4% |
| Barrel | 5.5% |