Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Bellinger, Cody
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
57
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.352 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.339 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.315
0.326
0.339
0.351
0.362
wOBA
0.318
0.332
0.348
0.364
0.378
ISO
0.137
0.150
0.164
0.178
0.191
K%
12.8%
13.7%
14.8%
15.9%
16.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
43
Exit velocity89.0
60
Hard-hit%36.5%
38
xBA0.336
64
xSLG0.513
52
xwOBA0.352
85
+28 vs proj
BB%12.2%
86
+42 vs proj
Bat speed68.2
30
K%14.8%
87
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.2 · LF
86
Arm Strength99.6 · LF
93
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs4.8 · LF
89
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · LF
30
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
3
Sprint Speed27.4 · LF
51
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.4% · rebadged research
70
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.0% · rebadged research
53
Correct Decisions67.6% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
69
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.337 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
92
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.359 · insufficient sample
10
Resists FastballwOBA 0.356 · validated
19
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362 · validated
39
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
212 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.038 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 419 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 615 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.289 to 0.362 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.120 to 0.249 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 2.9% to 7.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.7% | 31.6% to 41.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 14.8% | 12.4% to 20.9% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 5.9% to 10.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.253 to 0.329 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1628 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
3599 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |