Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
2
templated note
Age-31 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYY · 2026
Bellinger, Cody
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYY
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 31
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.378 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.348 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.322
0.334
0.348
0.362
0.375
wOBA
0.350
0.368
0.389
0.409
0.427
ISO
0.149
0.165
0.183
0.201
0.217
K%
11.5%
12.6%
13.9%
15.2%
16.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%14.2%
93
+52 vs proj
Barrel%5.2%
53
Bat speed68.8
38
Exit velocity89.9
69
Hard-hit%38.9%
46
+20 vs proj
K%13.1%
92
xBA0.343
69
xSLG0.549
62
xwOBA0.378
91
+36 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · LF
92
Arm Strength97.8 · LF
89
Outs Above Avg2.0 · LF
90
Range Runs2.0 · LF
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · LF
23
SB Success Rate40.0% · LF
2
Sprint Speed27.6 · LF
58
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
78
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · borderline
2
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · insufficient sample
17
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.261 · validated thin sample
88
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.356 · insufficient sample
9
Resists FastballwOBA 0.366 · validated
11
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.370 · validated
21
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
186 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.064 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.075 |
| Sample | 267 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 615 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 26 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.289 to 0.362 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.120 to 0.249 | +/- 0.065 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 2.9% to 7.0% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 33.7% | 31.6% to 41.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 14.8% | 12.4% to 20.9% | +/- 4.3% |
| BB% | 8.1% | 5.9% to 10.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.279 | 0.253 to 0.329 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1628 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.273 |
| K% | 12.8% |
| BB% | 5.9% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |
vs RHP
3599 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.272 |
| K% | 13.4% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |