Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Varsho, Daulton
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status IL-10
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
36
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.289 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.283 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.285 |
| Observed weight | 71% |
xwOBA
0.264
0.274
0.285
0.295
0.305
wOBA
0.281
0.293
0.306
0.320
0.332
ISO
0.127
0.138
0.151
0.163
0.174
K%
19.8%
20.8%
21.9%
23.1%
24.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
58
Exit velocity86.1
31
Hard-hit%37.0%
44
xBA0.293
21
xSLG0.454
32
xwOBA0.283
28
BB%7.5%
38
Bat speed71.0
72
K%20.1%
67
+43 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.7 · CF
7
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
18
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs6.5 · CF
91
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · CF
54
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
93
Sprint Speed27.4 · CF
48
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.4% · rebadged research
26
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.9% · rebadged research
74
Correct Decisions64.9% · rebadged research
37
Resists FastballwOBA 0.319 · validated
85
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
42
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
73
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
86
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384 · validated
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
268 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.014 |
| Sample | 546 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 437 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.292 | 0.272 to 0.343 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.180 | 0.144 to 0.278 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.5% | 3.4% to 7.9% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 31.4% to 45.4% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 28.0% | 21.8% to 32.2% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 5.8% to 10.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.269 | 0.221 to 0.322 | +/- 0.051 |
vs LHP
594 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
2003 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |