Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Varsho, Daulton
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 30
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
37
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.290 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.294 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.292 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.268
0.280
0.292
0.305
0.317
wOBA
0.309
0.325
0.343
0.361
0.377
ISO
0.133
0.148
0.164
0.180
0.195
K%
19.6%
20.9%
22.3%
23.7%
25.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
47
Exit velocity85.8
24
Hard-hit%39.5%
52
xBA0.308
34
xSLG0.458
30
xwOBA0.294
37
BB%8.5%
49
Bat speed70.9
70
K%19.5%
68
+46 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
27
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
20
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs3.3 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · CF
39
Sprint Speed27.3 · CF
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1% · rebadged research
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0% · rebadged research
78
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · borderline
28
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · insufficient sample
34
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278 · validated thin sample
57
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395 · validated
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.050 |
| Sample | 328 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 437 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.293 | 0.272 to 0.344 | +/- 0.036 |
| ISO | 0.180 | 0.144 to 0.279 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.3% to 7.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 37.8% | 31.4% to 45.4% | +/- 7.0% |
| K% | 28.0% | 21.8% to 32.2% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 7.8% | 5.8% to 10.7% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.263 | 0.216 to 0.315 | +/- 0.050 |
vs LHP
594 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.234 |
| K% | 19.3% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 2.9% |
vs RHP
2003 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.244 |
| K% | 22.4% |
| BB% | 6.6% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |