Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
2
templated note
Age-34 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / MIN · 2026
Bell, Josh
On-base driven regular with stable floor
Team MIN
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 34
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
70
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.326 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.331 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.330 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.305
0.317
0.330
0.343
0.354
wOBA
0.302
0.316
0.332
0.348
0.363
ISO
0.143
0.155
0.169
0.183
0.196
K%
19.3%
20.4%
21.6%
22.8%
23.8%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
79
Exit velocity89.6
67
Hard-hit%42.0%
63
xBA0.332
61
xSLG0.595
75
xwOBA0.331
73
BB%7.6%
37
-25 vs proj
Bat speed70.5
65
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B
28
Range Runs-0.9 · 1B
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.7 · DH
8
Sprint Speed26.0 · DH
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.6% · rebadged research
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.1% · rebadged research
93
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
73
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.304 · borderline
18
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
36
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284 · validated thin sample
39
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · insufficient sample
98
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361 · validated
14
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
93
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
194 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.002 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| Sample | 394 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 544 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 19 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.333 | 0.291 to 0.376 | +/- 0.043 |
| ISO | 0.158 | 0.117 to 0.237 | +/- 0.060 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 4.6% to 8.6% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 42.9% | 38.5% to 49.6% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 19.9% | 16.7% to 25.2% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 9.6% | 7.5% to 12.1% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.272 | 0.239 to 0.317 | +/- 0.039 |
vs LHP
1500 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 16.9% |
| BB% | 9.2% |
| Barrel | 5.1% |
vs RHP
3875 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 16.8% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 5.7% |