Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Hitter projection / NYM · 2026
Semien, Marcus
Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach
Team NYM
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 36
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
53
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.313 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.287
0.300
0.314
0.329
0.341
wOBA
0.273
0.289
0.306
0.322
0.338
ISO
0.114
0.127
0.142
0.158
0.171
K%
17.2%
18.3%
19.4%
20.6%
21.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
68
+25 vs proj
Exit velocity86.3
28
Hard-hit%36.7%
39
xBA0.333
63
xSLG0.542
62
xwOBA0.316
59
BB%7.4%
36
-17 vs proj
Bat speed66.5
15
K%21.0%
59
-21 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
12
Arm Strength85.3 · 2B
38
Outs Above Avg-5.0 · 2B
7
Range Runs-3.5 · 2B
19
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · 2B
43
Sprint Speed28.1 · 2B
70
SB Success Rate50.0% · 2B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9% · rebadged research
47
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
64
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
53
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.234 · borderline
100
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.305 · validated thin sample
8
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · insufficient sample
43
Resists FastballwOBA 0.322 · validated
81
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated
32
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
203 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.009 |
| Sample | 338 PA |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 555 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 18 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.315 | 0.272 to 0.366 | +/- 0.047 |
| ISO | 0.154 | 0.106 to 0.231 | +/- 0.063 |
| Barrel% | 4.5% | 3.0% to 6.9% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 36.5% | 32.4% to 43.4% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 16.8% | 14.4% to 21.6% | +/- 3.6% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.5% to 11.9% | +/- 2.7% |
| BABIP | 0.266 | 0.244 to 0.319 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
1903 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.290 |
| K% | 14.4% |
| BB% | 9.9% |
| Barrel | 4.3% |
vs RHP
5135 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.264 |
| K% | 14.0% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 4.1% |