Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / ATL · 2026

Yastrzemski, Mike

Veteran bat leaning on contact and approach

Primary
0.317 xwOBA
Range
0.294 to 0.358
Live Δ
yes
Team ATL Archetype Balanced regular Age 36 Status IL-10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
51
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
51
Defense4 metrics
47
Speed2 metrics
55
Plate skills10 metrics
47
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
xwOBA preseason0.319
xwOBA current pace0.305
xwOBA rolling p500.311
Observed weight55%
xwOBA
0.287 0.298 0.311 0.324 0.336
wOBA
0.308 0.326 0.345 0.365 0.382
ISO
0.136 0.150 0.165 0.180 0.194
K%
20.5% 22.0% 23.7% 25.4% 26.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.4%
41 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity89.8
70
Hard-hit%43.8%
70
xBA0.313
40
xSLG0.482
40
xwOBA0.305
47
BB%10.3%
70
Bat speed69.1
42
K%23.8%
41
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
59
Arm Strength92.5 · LF
49
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs-1.2 · LF
34
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · LF
66
Sprint Speed27.2 · LF
44
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-17
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 30.2% · rebadged research
13
Correct Decisions63.5% · rebadged research
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.273 · borderline
80
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · insufficient sample
13
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
31
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.321 · insufficient sample
81
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
59
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.351 · validated
73
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
36
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Yastrzemski, Mike · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.305 2026-07-06: 0.2972026-07-07: 0.2992026-07-08: 0.2992026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2972026-07-11: 0.3062026-07-12: 0.3052026-07-13: 0.3052026-07-14: 0.3052026-07-15: 0.3052026-07-16: 0.3052026-07-17: 0.305 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

126 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Yastrzemski, Mike · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 11% of plotted batted ballsPull 11%Center field third: 67% of plotted batted ballsCenter 67%Right field third: 21% of plotted batted ballsOppo 21% LF 335 CF 400 RF 325 2026-03-16 · double · CH · fly_ball · EV 78.1 / LA 54.02026-03-16 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 93.5 / LA 18.02026-03-16 · double · SI · fly_ball · EV 96.3 / LA 31.02026-03-23 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 95.1 / LA 28.02026-03-23 · field out · CH · popup · EV 64.5 / LA 65.02026-03-24 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 24.02026-03-28 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 96.6 / LA 10.02026-03-28 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 80.4 / LA -8.02026-03-28 · single · FC · ground_ball · EV 45.1 / LA -68.02026-03-28 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 102.5 / LA 18.02026-03-29 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -7.02026-03-29 · double · CU · line_drive · EV 76.8 / LA 18.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · popup · EV 72.6 / LA 70.02026-03-30 · triple · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 20.02026-03-30 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 86.8 / LA 44.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.3 / LA 27.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · fly_ball · EV 84.2 / LA 34.02026-03-31 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 84.0 / LA -29.02026-04-01 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 48.02026-04-01 · field out · SI · popup · EV 85.6 / LA 69.02026-04-02 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.1 / LA -18.02026-04-02 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.2 / LA -9.02026-04-02 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 76.3 / LA -3.02026-04-02 · double · EP · fly_ball · EV 94.0 / LA 17.02026-04-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 36.8 / LA -87.02026-04-05 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -4.02026-04-05 · grounded into double play · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.0 / LA -1.02026-04-05 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA 2.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 32.02026-04-06 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.6 / LA -1.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.0 / LA 39.02026-04-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -6.02026-04-08 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 47.02026-04-08 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA -11.02026-04-10 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 64.5 / LA -36.02026-04-10 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 97.2 / LA -5.02026-04-11 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 93.6 / LA 20.02026-04-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 92.5 / LA -27.02026-04-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA 5.02026-04-13 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 94.4 / LA 42.02026-04-13 · single · CU · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA 5.02026-04-14 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.1 / LA -7.02026-04-14 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 0.02026-04-14 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 105.0 / LA 11.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 98.7 / LA 20.02026-04-15 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 74.0 / LA 28.02026-04-15 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 105.1 / LA 2.02026-04-17 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 98.1 / LA -5.02026-04-17 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.4 / LA 40.02026-04-19 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 103.4 / LA 21.02026-04-19 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 86.2 / LA 18.02026-04-20 · field error · FF · ground_ball · EV 99.4 / LA -10.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 22.02026-04-20 · fielders choice · FF · ground_ball · EV 98.2 / LA -2.02026-04-22 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 104.5 / LA 16.02026-04-22 · field out · FS · fly_ball · EV 89.0 / LA 27.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA 6.02026-04-22 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 101.5 / LA -1.02026-04-23 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 91.3 / LA -8.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 92.9 / LA 33.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 82.0 / LA 5.02026-04-24 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 81.1 / LA 46.02026-04-24 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 1.02026-04-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 93.9 / LA 29.02026-04-25 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 62.3 / LA -21.02026-04-28 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 89.7 / LA 15.02026-04-28 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 72.7 / LA -2.02026-04-28 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 78.6 / LA 16.02026-04-29 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 86.7 / LA 47.02026-04-30 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 94.2 / LA -8.02026-04-30 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 93.7 / LA 10.02026-05-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.4 / LA -5.02026-05-02 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 100.8 / LA 5.02026-05-02 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 91.0 / LA 24.02026-05-02 · field out · FF · popup · EV 75.4 / LA 73.02026-05-03 · single · FF · fly_ball · EV 64.7 / LA 31.02026-05-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.1 / LA -11.02026-05-03 · field out · ST · popup · EV 80.5 / LA 77.02026-05-04 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 94.0 / LA -1.02026-05-04 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 69.7 / LA -10.02026-05-04 · field out · FS · popup · EV 92.6 / LA 67.02026-05-04 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 14.02026-05-05 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 73.1 / LA 32.02026-05-05 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 103.8 / LA 8.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 80.4 / LA 70.02026-05-06 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 15.02026-05-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 86.4 / LA 71.02026-05-08 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 99.5 / LA 32.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 93.9 / LA -2.02026-05-12 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 102.8 / LA 35.02026-05-12 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 91.5 / LA 15.02026-05-13 · double · ST · line_drive · EV 101.1 / LA 20.02026-05-14 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.2 / LA 37.02026-05-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 15.02026-05-17 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 77.5 / LA 33.02026-05-17 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 74.7 / LA 3.02026-05-17 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 94.6 / LA 39.02026-05-18 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 88.1 / LA 43.02026-05-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 92.2 / LA -8.02026-05-20 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 77.5 / LA -5.02026-05-20 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 95.6 / LA 34.02026-05-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 7.02026-05-21 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 97.0 / LA 14.02026-05-21 · home run · CH · fly_ball · EV 102.4 / LA 23.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 91.3 / LA 52.02026-05-23 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 42.02026-05-26 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 97.9 / LA 10.02026-05-31 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 99.7 / LA 12.02026-06-04 · field out · FS · line_drive · EV 95.2 / LA 19.02026-06-04 · field out · CU · line_drive · EV 88.0 / LA 25.02026-06-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 87.9 / LA 52.02026-06-05 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 106.2 / LA 17.02026-06-07 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 88.3 / LA 57.02026-06-07 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 96.8 / LA 24.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · line_drive · EV 104.9 / LA 18.02026-06-22 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 102.7 / LA 15.02026-06-22 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 48.6 / LA -67.02026-06-26 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 97.0 / LA -12.02026-06-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 83.8 / LA 33.02026-06-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 86.7 / LA -28.02026-06-26 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 26.02026-06-30 · single · ST · ground_ball · EV 44.5 / LA -6.02026-06-30 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 68.6 / LA -22.02026-07-01 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 101.6 / LA 22.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Yastrzemski, Mike · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 70.5 mph Hard swing rate 4% Whiff / swing 24% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Yastrzemski, Mike · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 50%50%Chase: 26%26%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.270 vs 0.228 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
3
templated note
Age-36 season adds a little downside to the power band.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ-0.012
wOBA Δ+0.028
Sample273 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances537----
Home Runs19----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3170.294 to 0.358+/- 0.032
ISO0.1810.150 to 0.259+/- 0.055
Barrel%5.6%3.8% to 7.5%+/- 1.9%
Hard-Hit%42.3%36.4% to 49.2%+/- 6.4%
K%22.6%18.3% to 29.9%+/- 5.8%
BB%10.7%8.1% to 13.7%+/- 2.8%
BABIP0.2750.227 to 0.323+/- 0.048
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

742 career PA

xwOBA0.228
K%22.4%
BB%6.4%
Barrel3.7%
vs RHP

2512 career PA

xwOBA0.270
K%19.3%
BB%9.9%
Barrel4.9%