Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Paredes, Isaac
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.313 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.283
0.296
0.311
0.326
0.340
wOBA
0.294
0.313
0.334
0.354
0.373
ISO
0.113
0.129
0.147
0.165
0.182
K%
15.1%
16.3%
17.7%
19.0%
20.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
52
-19 vs proj
Barrel%3.8%
32
Bat speed66.0
12
Exit velocity86.8
31
Hard-hit%28.7%
11
K%16.7%
81
xBA0.295
27
xSLG0.443
28
xwOBA0.313
54
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
35
Arm Strength80.8 · 3B
14
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
45
Range Runs0.4 · 3B
51
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.0 · 3B
6
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.8% · rebadged research
54
Correct Decisions67.1% · rebadged research
58
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
68
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.268 · borderline
85
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.258 · insufficient sample
94
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283 · validated thin sample
30
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.368 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326 · validated
76
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.379 · validated
11
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
159 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.007 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.014 |
| Sample | 234 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 493 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.319 | 0.283 to 0.366 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.169 | 0.131 to 0.260 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 3.7% | 1.9% to 6.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.2% | 25.0% to 38.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.5% to 22.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 10.7% | 8.1% to 13.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.267 | 0.230 to 0.310 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
549 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1786 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |