Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / HOU · 2026
Paredes, Isaac
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team HOU
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
32
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.310 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.316 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.314 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.289
0.301
0.314
0.326
0.338
wOBA
0.322
0.337
0.353
0.370
0.384
ISO
0.132
0.145
0.160
0.174
0.188
K%
15.0%
16.0%
17.2%
18.3%
19.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
35
Exit velocity86.8
32
Hard-hit%30.6%
16
xBA0.293
23
xSLG0.445
27
xwOBA0.316
60
BB%9.7%
64
Bat speed66.0
12
K%16.3%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
40
Arm Strength80.8 · 3B
10
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs0.6 · 3B
54
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 3B
19
Sprint Speed25.0 · 3B
5
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research
67
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.3% · rebadged research
49
Correct Decisions66.9% · rebadged research
59
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
66
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.256 · insufficient sample
97
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
32
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.377 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.334 · validated
62
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390 · validated
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
187 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.004 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.034 |
| Sample | 393 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 493 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 20 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.319 | 0.283 to 0.366 | +/- 0.042 |
| ISO | 0.169 | 0.131 to 0.260 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 3.7% | 1.9% to 6.2% | +/- 2.1% |
| Hard-Hit% | 31.2% | 25.0% to 38.5% | +/- 6.8% |
| K% | 17.1% | 14.5% to 22.9% | +/- 4.2% |
| BB% | 10.7% | 8.1% to 13.7% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.267 | 0.230 to 0.310 | +/- 0.040 |
vs LHP
549 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.280 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 9.6% |
| Barrel | 3.2% |
vs RHP
1786 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 14.7% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 3.3% |