The Comp Constellation
Profile-shape similarity over six weighted feature groups, standardized within this season's 264 qualified hitters (202+ PA). Closer to the center star = more alike. xwOBA is deliberately excluded: this maps how hitters are built, not results twins.
strong match (0.55+)
moderate (0.45 to 0.55)
weaker (< 0.45)
star size + line weight scale with similarity · rings mark 0.70 / 0.50 / 0.30 · hover a star for why, click for the fingerprint
Radial fingerprint · population percentiles
Two profile shapes drawn over the same axes: overlap is what makes them comps, gaps are where they part. Contreras, Willson in signal, the comp in amber.
BOS · bats R · 381 PA
Ranked comps for Contreras, Willson
| # | Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Differs on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Canzone, Dominic SEA · L · 268 PA | 0.74 | Chase rateFly-ball rateIn-zone contact | Swing length -1.1zAvg exit velocity +0.9zSprint speed -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 02 | Caglianone, Jac KC · L · 358 PA | 0.73 | Whiff ratexwOBA on contactBarrel rate | Hard-hit rate +1.0zIsolated power -1.0zAvg exit velocity +0.9z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 03 | Harper, Bryce PHI · L · 416 PA | 0.73 | Sprint speedAvg exit velocityHard-hit rate | Walk rate +1.6zSwing length -1.1zPull rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 04 | Goodman, Hunter COL · R · 400 PA | 0.71 | Sprint speedSweet-spot rateHard-hit rate | Swing length -1.1zChase rate +1.1zStrikeout rate +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 05 | Basallo, Samuel BAL · L · 317 PA | 0.71 | Hard-hit rateIn-zone contactSweet-spot rate | Sprint speed -1.8zChase rate +1.0zxwOBA on contact -0.8z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 06 | Okamoto, Kazuma TOR · R · 395 PA | 0.69 | Barrel rateHard-hit rateOppo rate | Bat speed -1.2zChase rate -1.1zIn-zone contact -1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 07 | Montgomery, Colson CWS · L · 405 PA | 0.65 | Max exit velocitySwing lengthBat speed | Fly-ball rate +1.6zGround-ball rate -1.4zStrikeout rate +1.3z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 08 | Hernández, Heriberto MIA · R · 237 PA | 0.65 | Ground-ball rateSweet-spot rateIsolated power | Chase rate -1.4zMax exit velocity -1.2zSprint speed +1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 09 | Crow-Armstrong, Pete CHC · L · 426 PA | 0.65 | Pull rateMax exit velocityOppo rate | Sprint speed +1.7zFly-ball rate +1.3zSwing length -1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 10 | Burger, Jake TEX · R · 390 PA | 0.63 | Sprint speedHard-hit rateFly-ball rate | xwOBA on contact -1.6zIsolated power -1.2zSweet-spot rate -1.0z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 11 | Ohtani, Shohei LAD · L · 417 PA | 0.62 | In-zone contactGround-ball ratePull rate | Walk rate +1.7zSweet-spot rate +1.4zAvg exit velocity +1.1z | Player Projection Swing lab |
| 12 | Abrams, CJ WSH · L · 415 PA | 0.60 | Avg exit velocitySweet-spot rateWalk rate | xwOBA on contact -1.5zBat speed -1.3zMax exit velocity -1.2z | Player Projection Swing lab |
Weighted RMS z-distance over 6 feature groups, standardized within the qualified population; similarity = exp(-alpha * d^2), one global fixed transform. xwOBA excluded by design: this matches profile shape, not outcome twins. Descriptive, not predictive.