Mithrandir Metrics
TB American League East Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Tampa Bay Rays

73.0-89.0 with P10-P90 wins 64-82. 81.9 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
73.0-89.0
Live pace
96.5
Delta
+23.5
Record 56-38 Run diff 32 Generated 2026-07-16T11:44:44.237747+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason73.0
Current pace96.5
Rolling p5087.4
Observed weight61%
Rolling wins
76.7 81.7 87.4 93.0 98.0
MOVE +14.4 wins PACE ahead BULLPEN FIP 4.33
October path

Projection odds

Division0.6%
Playoffs7.3%
Pennant0.4%
World Series0.2%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.251
Rotation FIP4.32
Bullpen FIP4.33
Run diff-70.1
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CFortes, Nick365-1.26
1BAranda, Jonathan4374.55
2BWilliamson, Ben349-0.00
SSWalls, Taylor395-1.41
3BCaminero, Junior5545.90
LFLux, Gavin516-0.42
CFMullins, Cedric509-1.08
RFFraley, Jake357-0.80
DHDíaz, Yandy6005.89