Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Wells, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace3.20
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.58 3.17 3.82 4.48 5.06
FIP
3.17 3.60 4.08 4.56 4.99
K%
19.8% 21.7% 23.8% 26.0% 27.9%
BB%
3.6% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.4%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%6.0%
86
Barrel allowed7.5%
53 +16 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
34
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
61
K%24.8%
67
Whiff%25.9%
70
xwOBA allowed0.329
38
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wells, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3062026-05-19: 0.3012026-05-21: 0.3012026-05-23: 0.3002026-05-24: 0.3002026-05-25: 0.3002026-05-26: 0.3062026-05-28: 0.3062026-05-29: 0.3062026-05-30: 0.3062026-05-31: 0.3012026-06-01: 0.329 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wells, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.5%Cutter: 25.1%Changeup: 19.9%Slider: 16.6%Curveball: 3.9% MIX FF 34%FC 25%CH 20%SL 17%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.0, IVB 1.1FFFC: HB 0.0, IVB 1.9FCCH: HB -1.0, IVB 1.8CHSL: HB -0.4, IVB 2.7SLCU: HB 0.4, IVB 4.7CU horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.9% 149 107 limited sample
FC 25.7% 113 104 limited sample
CH 20.0% 88 107 limited sample
SL 16.2% 71 105 limited sample
CB 4.1% 18 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Changeup 23%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.16
K% Δ+0.011
Sample28.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.4----
Batters Faced249----
K%23.7%18.9% to 30.0%+/- 5.5%
BB%5.8%3.4% to 8.4%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.8%20.0% to 29.6%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.500.88 to 2.18+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3160.261 to 0.331+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.0% to 13.7%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.362.58 to 5.91+/- 1.66
FIP4.053.14 to 5.57+/- 1.22
WHIP1.1060.804 to 1.465+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

586 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%21.8%
BB%4.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

827 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%22.5%
BB%4.0%
Barrel10.9%