Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / BAL · 2026

Wells, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team BAL Archetype Volatile contact Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
82
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal6 metrics
75
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.12
ERA current pace3.02
ERA rolling p503.65
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.46 3.03 3.65 4.28 4.84
FIP
2.90 3.31 3.77 4.23 4.64
K%
21.4% 23.1% 25.0% 26.9% 28.7%
BB%
3.7% 4.5% 5.4% 6.3% 7.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.02
88
ERA3.02
76
BB%5.6%
91
K%27.2%
80 +22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.289
73 +25 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
67 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo93.5
34
Hard-hit allowed34.2%
82
Whiff%28.7%
87 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+106
83
Changeup Stuff+108
90
Curveball Stuff+103
69
Cutter Stuff+105
75
Fastball Stuff+106
81
Slider Stuff+103
55
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Wells, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.289 2026-07-05: 0.2992026-07-06: 0.2972026-07-07: 0.2972026-07-08: 0.2972026-07-09: 0.2972026-07-10: 0.2962026-07-11: 0.2942026-07-12: 0.2942026-07-13: 0.2892026-07-14: 0.2892026-07-15: 0.2892026-07-16: 0.289 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Wells, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 29.5%Cutter: 27.3%Changeup: 22.7%Slider: 16.0%Curveball: 4.5% FF29% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 29%FC 27%CH 23%SL 16%CU 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Wells, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphCutter: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.2 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSlider: 16% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 4% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 77.9 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 32.8% 168 106 limited sample
FC 26.6% 136 105 limited sample
CH 20.3% 104 108 limited sample
SL 16.0% 82 103 limited sample
CB 4.3% 22 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 37%, Changeup 23%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.34
K% Δ+0.035
Sample45.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.1----
Batters Faced248----
K%23.7%18.9% to 30.0%+/- 5.5%
BB%5.8%3.4% to 8.4%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%23.8%20.0% to 29.6%+/- 4.8%
HR/91.500.88 to 2.18+/- 0.65
xwOBA Against0.3160.261 to 0.331+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.0% to 13.7%+/- 4.3%
ERA4.362.58 to 5.91+/- 1.66
FIP4.053.14 to 5.57+/- 1.22
WHIP1.1060.804 to 1.465+/- 0.330
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

586 career BF

xwOBA0.281
K%21.8%
BB%4.8%
Barrel10.2%
vs RHH

827 career BF

xwOBA0.283
K%22.5%
BB%4.0%
Barrel10.9%