Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

McClanahan, Shane

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
21.9% K%
Range
19.3% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
66
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace2.83
ERA rolling p503.20
Observed weight62%
ERA
2.15 2.65 3.20 3.76 4.26
FIP
2.47 2.94 3.46 3.98 4.45
K%
21.6% 22.8% 24.2% 25.6% 26.8%
BB%
6.6% 7.4% 8.3% 9.1% 9.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
80
ERA2.83
81
BB%8.2%
57
K%24.0%
60
xwOBA allowed0.310
54
Barrel allowed8.6%
37
Fastball velo95.5
68
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
42
Whiff%25.2%
68
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Changeup Stuff+108
89
Fastball Stuff+100
35
Mithrandir Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+104
83
Slider Stuff+105
73
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 38%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McClanahan, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.310 2026-07-05: 0.3202026-07-06: 0.3202026-07-07: 0.3202026-07-08: 0.3202026-07-09: 0.3202026-07-10: 0.3102026-07-11: 0.3102026-07-12: 0.3102026-07-13: 0.3102026-07-14: 0.3102026-07-15: 0.3102026-07-16: 0.310 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McClanahan, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McClanahan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 38.2%Changeup: 29.2%Slider: 18.9%Curveball: 13.7% FF38% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 38%CH 29%SL 19%CU 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McClanahan, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 38% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 95.5 mphFF96 mphChangeup: 29% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 87.0 mphCH87 mphSlider: 19% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 88.2 mphSL88 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 82.0 mphCU82 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 36.2% 341 100 qualified
CH 30.1% 284 108 qualified
SL 20.5% 193 105 limited sample
CB 13.2% 124 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.242 vs 0.265 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.87
K% Δ+0.020
Sample93.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings62.5----
Batters Faced256----
K%21.9%19.3% to 29.7%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.7%5.4% to 11.6%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%25.8%23.3% to 33.9%+/- 5.3%
HR/91.500.88 to 2.11+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3160.269 to 0.347+/- 0.039
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.5% to 11.8%+/- 3.2%
ERA3.702.29 to 5.19+/- 1.45
FIP3.982.97 to 5.71+/- 1.37
WHIP1.1960.930 to 1.478+/- 0.274
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

335 career BF

xwOBA0.242
K%21.5%
BB%7.5%
Barrel6.0%
vs RHH

1435 career BF

xwOBA0.265
K%21.2%
BB%7.6%
Barrel8.7%