Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.242 vs 0.265 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026
McClanahan, Shane
Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape
Team TB
Archetype Balanced reliever 2
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.81 |
| ERA current pace | 2.52 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.14 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
ERA
2.12
2.60
3.14
3.69
4.17
FIP
2.39
2.85
3.36
3.86
4.32
K%
21.7%
23.2%
24.8%
26.4%
27.9%
BB%
6.7%
7.6%
8.6%
9.6%
10.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%9.0%
46
Barrel allowed9.1%
34
Fastball velo95.2
66
Hard-hit allowed40.6%
42
K%25.0%
69
+21 vs proj
Whiff%26.0%
71
xwOBA allowed0.300
63
+17 vs proj
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+103
59
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
4Pitches
2026Season
39%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 36.9% | 322 | 100 | qualified |
| CH | 29.3% | 256 | 109 | qualified |
| SL | 20.6% | 180 | 104 | limited sample |
| CB | 13.2% | 115 | 105 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.18 |
| K% Δ | +0.031 |
| Sample | 62.3 IP |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 62.7 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 257 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.9% | 19.3% to 29.7% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 5.4% to 11.6% | +/- 3.1% |
| Whiff% | 25.8% | 23.3% to 33.9% | +/- 5.3% |
| HR/9 | 1.50 | 0.88 to 2.11 | +/- 0.61 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.316 | 0.269 to 0.347 | +/- 0.039 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.7% | 5.5% to 11.8% | +/- 3.2% |
| ERA | 3.70 | 2.29 to 5.19 | +/- 1.45 |
| FIP | 3.98 | 2.97 to 5.71 | +/- 1.37 |
| WHIP | 1.196 | 0.930 to 1.477 | +/- 0.274 |
vs LHH
335 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.242 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 6.0% |
vs RHH
1435 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.265 |
| K% | 21.2% |
| BB% | 7.6% |
| Barrel | 8.7% |