Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.275 vs 0.223 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Aranda, Jonathan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TB
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.394 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.367 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.341
0.354
0.367
0.381
0.393
wOBA
0.372
0.391
0.411
0.432
0.450
ISO
0.156
0.171
0.187
0.204
0.219
K%
20.6%
22.0%
23.6%
25.2%
26.6%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.3%
88
+39 vs proj
Barrel%8.0%
82
Bat speed68.6
36
Exit velocity91.4
88
Hard-hit%48.1%
85
K%23.2%
42
xBA0.390
93
xSLG0.723
93
xwOBA0.394
96
+17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 1B
9
Range Runs-1.9 · 1B
20
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · 1B
18
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
13
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.3% · rebadged research
69
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions67.5% · rebadged research
64
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.331 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.306 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
50
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
78
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.399 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
158 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.045 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 263 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 437 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.348 | 0.309 to 0.377 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.180 | 0.119 to 0.232 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.8% | 4.4% to 8.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.1% | 41.9% to 53.3% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 23.4% | 19.5% to 29.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.9% to 11.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.323 | 0.294 to 0.369 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
145 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |
vs RHP
666 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |