Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.275 vs 0.223 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Aranda, Jonathan
Middle-order power profile with real damage
Team TB
Archetype Impact slugger
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
84
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.336 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.372 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.360 |
| Observed weight | 66% |
xwOBA
0.337
0.347
0.360
0.372
0.382
wOBA
0.364
0.379
0.395
0.411
0.425
ISO
0.145
0.157
0.170
0.183
0.195
K%
20.0%
21.2%
22.5%
23.8%
24.9%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
74
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%45.4%
77
xBA0.369
88
xSLG0.635
84
xwOBA0.372
94
BB%12.0%
85
+32 vs proj
Bat speed68.4
33
K%21.6%
55
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 1B
18
Range Runs-1.5 · 1B
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.1 · 1B
6
Sprint Speed25.6 · 1B
12
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.7% · rebadged research
72
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7% · rebadged research
55
Correct Decisions67.7% · rebadged research
65
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
71
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.335 · borderline
3
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
4
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287 · validated thin sample
33
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · insufficient sample
15
Resists FastballwOBA 0.335 · validated
58
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.402 · validated
3
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
185 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.024 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.046 |
| Sample | 425 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 437 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.348 | 0.309 to 0.377 | +/- 0.034 |
| ISO | 0.180 | 0.119 to 0.232 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 6.8% | 4.4% to 8.8% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 48.1% | 41.9% to 53.3% | +/- 5.7% |
| K% | 23.4% | 19.5% to 29.9% | +/- 5.2% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 6.9% to 11.8% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.323 | 0.294 to 0.369 | +/- 0.037 |
vs LHP
145 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.223 |
| K% | 18.9% |
| BB% | 7.3% |
| Barrel | 2.5% |
vs RHP
666 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 17.9% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 6.2% |