Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Cleavinger, Garrett

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
27.5% K%
Range
21.4% to 35.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
59
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
62
Arsenal4 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.45
ERA current pace3.58
ERA rolling p503.50
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.08 2.75 3.50 4.24 4.91
FIP
2.99 3.21 3.46 3.71 3.94
K%
24.2% 26.6% 29.2% 31.9% 34.2%
BB%
7.3% 8.7% 10.2% 11.7% 13.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
46
ERA3.58
60
BB%11.6%
20 -18 vs proj
K%31.8%
96
xwOBA allowed0.288
74 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.9%
62
Fastball velo95.7
70
Hard-hit allowed36.1%
67
Whiff%24.6%
62 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+97
20
Mithrandir Stuff+103
57
Sinker Stuff+98
21
Slider Stuff+105
74
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cleavinger, Garrett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.288 2026-07-05: 0.2892026-07-06: 0.2902026-07-07: 0.2902026-07-08: 0.2902026-07-09: 0.2872026-07-10: 0.2872026-07-11: 0.2872026-07-12: 0.2862026-07-13: 0.2882026-07-14: 0.2882026-07-15: 0.2882026-07-16: 0.288 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cleavinger, Garrett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cleavinger, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 41.9%Sinker: 28.1%Sweeper: 16.0%4-Seam Fastball: 14.0% SL42% · 87 mphprimary pitch SL 42%SI 28%ST 16%FF 14% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cleavinger, Garrett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 42% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.3 mphSL87 mphSinker: 28% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 95.2 mphSI95 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 18″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.4 mphST80 mph4-Seam Fastball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 96.6 mphFF97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 57.8% 152 105 limited sample
SI 28.9% 76 98 limited sample
FB 13.3% 35 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.277 vs 0.297 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
3
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
4
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Slider 39%, Sinker 37%, 4-Seam Fastball 12%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.12
K% Δ+0.043
Sample29.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.0----
Batters Faced160----
K%27.5%21.4% to 35.8%+/- 7.2%
BB%9.5%5.6% to 13.6%+/- 4.0%
Whiff%28.5%23.1% to 34.3%+/- 5.6%
HR/91.150.52 to 2.07+/- 0.77
xwOBA Against0.3080.260 to 0.361+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed7.6%4.4% to 11.5%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.461.81 to 5.65+/- 1.92
FIP3.512.80 to 4.09+/- 0.64
WHIP1.1930.971 to 1.557+/- 0.293
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

300 career BF

xwOBA0.277
K%28.2%
BB%9.0%
Barrel6.3%
vs RHH

540 career BF

xwOBA0.297
K%25.1%
BB%9.1%
Barrel7.7%