Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Simpson, Chandler
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
7
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.322 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.265 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.286 |
| Observed weight | 63% |
xwOBA
0.265
0.275
0.286
0.297
0.307
wOBA
0.298
0.313
0.330
0.346
0.361
ISO
0.054
0.066
0.080
0.094
0.106
K%
7.6%
8.6%
9.8%
11.0%
12.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
1
Exit velocity81.3
3
Hard-hit%14.8%
1
xBA0.287
19
xSLG0.328
2
xwOBA0.265
13
-44 vs proj
BB%4.8%
12
-16 vs proj
Bat speed61.7
2
K%9.1%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · LF
23
Arm Strength96.1 · LF
74
Outs Above Avg8.0 · LF
99
Range Runs7.0 · LF
96
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs4.8 · LF
99
Bolts71.0 · LF
100
SB Success Rate75.0% · LF
34
Sprint Speed29.5 · LF
96
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.1% · rebadged research
53
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8% · rebadged research
18
Correct Decisions65.0% · rebadged research
37
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
35
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.311 · borderline
12
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · insufficient sample
38
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.264 · validated thin sample
89
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · insufficient sample
25
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.359 · validated
50
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
233 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.049 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.016 |
| Sample | 373 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 424 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 5 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.314 | 0.284 to 0.339 | +/- 0.027 |
| ISO | 0.080 | 0.037 to 0.166 | +/- 0.064 |
| Barrel% | 0.8% | 0.2% to 3.4% | +/- 1.6% |
| Hard-Hit% | 21.2% | 13.1% to 31.2% | +/- 9.1% |
| K% | 12.7% | 8.9% to 18.9% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 6.8% | 2.9% to 8.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.307 | 0.290 to 0.366 | +/- 0.038 |
vs LHP
114 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.190 |
| K% | 6.6% |
| BB% | 3.2% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |
vs RHP
336 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.203 |
| K% | 6.1% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 0.0% |