Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Legumina, Casey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
17.6% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
43
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal5 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.89
ERA rolling p504.29
Observed weight43%
ERA
2.59 3.39 4.29 5.18 5.99
FIP
3.33 3.79 4.30 4.81 5.27
K%
16.2% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 23.8%
BB%
5.5% 6.7% 7.9% 9.2% 10.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
56
ERA3.89
52
BB%6.7%
79 +35 vs proj
K%16.2%
11 -42 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.347
19
Barrel allowed9.0%
30 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
49
Whiff%18.6%
15 -30 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+96
15
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+106
82
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Slider Stuff+107
84
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Legumina, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.347 2026-07-06: 0.3362026-07-07: 0.3362026-07-08: 0.3292026-07-09: 0.3292026-07-10: 0.3292026-07-11: 0.3422026-07-12: 0.3422026-07-13: 0.3442026-07-14: 0.3442026-07-15: 0.3442026-07-16: 0.3472026-07-17: 0.347 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Legumina, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.9%Sinker: 19.4%Sweeper: 14.3%Slider: 12.3%Changeup: 12.1% FF42% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 42%SI 19%ST 14%SL 12%CH 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSinker: 19% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.2 mphSI93 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 79.8 mphST80 mphSlider: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.2% 146 105 limited sample
SL 28.9% 105 107 limited sample
SI 20.9% 76 106 limited sample
CH 9.9% 36 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.290 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sinker 22%, Sweeper 17%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.84
K% Δ-0.067
Sample42.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.4----
Batters Faced271----
K%22.9%17.6% to 29.7%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.1%5.7% to 13.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%15.3% to 25.2%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.42+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3330.260 to 0.375+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.8% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.732.79 to 7.55+/- 2.38
FIP4.192.77 to 5.47+/- 1.35
WHIP1.3921.148 to 1.769+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.2%
BB%11.8%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

186 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%21.0%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.3%