Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Legumina, Casey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
22.9% K%
Range
17.6% to 29.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason4.58
ERA current pace3.32
ERA rolling p504.17
Observed weight33%
ERA
2.39 3.23 4.17 5.10 5.95
FIP
3.28 3.76 4.29 4.82 5.30
K%
15.8% 17.8% 20.1% 22.3% 24.3%
BB%
5.2% 6.4% 7.9% 9.3% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%5.9%
86 +44 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
33
Fastball velo93.3
32
Hard-hit allowed39.1%
51
K%14.4%
5 -49 vs proj
Whiff%17.4%
9 -36 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.336
32
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+106
80
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Legumina, Casey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3422026-05-19: 0.3422026-05-21: 0.3392026-05-23: 0.3392026-05-24: 0.3392026-05-25: 0.3392026-05-26: 0.3352026-05-28: 0.3352026-05-29: 0.3382026-05-30: 0.3382026-05-31: 0.3382026-06-01: 0.336 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Legumina, Casey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.3%Sinker: 20.4%Sweeper: 20.4%Changeup: 10.1%Slider: 8.8% MIX FF 40%SI 20%ST 20%CH 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Legumina, Casey · 2026 arsenal snapshot FF: HB -0.3, IVB 1.4FFSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.9SIST: HB -0.2, IVB 3.2STCH: HB -1.2, IVB 2.9CHSL: HB -0.2, IVB 2.8SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 40.2% 146 105 limited sample
SL 28.9% 105 107 limited sample
SI 20.9% 76 106 limited sample
CH 9.9% 36 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.290 vs 0.261 xwOBA allowed split).
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 50%, Sinker 22%, Sweeper 17%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.41
K% Δ-0.085
Sample27.0 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings60.7----
Batters Faced272----
K%22.9%17.6% to 29.7%+/- 6.0%
BB%9.1%5.7% to 13.3%+/- 3.8%
Whiff%22.3%15.3% to 25.2%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.340.91 to 2.42+/- 0.76
xwOBA Against0.3330.260 to 0.375+/- 0.058
Barrel% Allowed7.8%4.8% to 11.7%+/- 3.5%
ERA4.732.79 to 7.55+/- 2.38
FIP4.192.77 to 5.47+/- 1.35
WHIP1.3921.148 to 1.769+/- 0.311
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

153 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.2%
BB%11.8%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

186 career BF

xwOBA0.261
K%21.0%
BB%8.2%
Barrel7.3%