Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Matz, Steven

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
17.3% K%
Range
14.8% to 24.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 35 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace5.56
ERA rolling p504.97
Observed weight60%
ERA
3.82 4.37 4.97 5.58 6.12
FIP
4.03 4.34 4.68 5.02 5.33
K%
15.7% 16.8% 18.1% 19.3% 20.5%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
69
ERA5.56
17
BB%7.2%
74 -15 vs proj
K%18.1%
21
xwOBA allowed0.342
20
Barrel allowed10.5%
11 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
37
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
69
Whiff%18.6%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Slider Stuff+101
44
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matz, Steven · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-13: 0.3452026-09-14: 0.3452026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3402026-09-25: 0.3402026-09-26: 0.3432026-09-27: 0.342 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matz, Steven · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.9%Changeup: 28.5%Curveball: 13.1%Slider: 8.3%Cutter: 0.2% SI50% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 50%CH 28%CU 13%SL 8%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 50% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.1 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.8 mphCU79 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.6 mphSL83 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 50.7% 540 105 qualified
CH 28.5% 303 102 qualified
CB 11.5% 123 104 limited sample
SL 9.3% 99 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Plays better against lefties right now (0.276 vs 0.301 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Home park gives the run-prevention profile a small HR cushion.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 58%, Curveball 21%, Changeup 19%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.95
K% Δ+0.008
Sample85.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings70.7----
Batters Faced296----
K%17.3%14.8% to 24.0%+/- 4.6%
BB%6.0%3.8% to 8.4%+/- 2.3%
Whiff%17.4%14.8% to 21.7%+/- 3.4%
HR/91.420.85 to 2.08+/- 0.62
xwOBA Against0.3310.285 to 0.356+/- 0.036
Barrel% Allowed7.7%5.2% to 10.6%+/- 2.7%
ERA4.613.00 to 6.18+/- 1.59
FIP4.303.34 to 5.14+/- 0.90
WHIP1.3261.094 to 1.583+/- 0.244
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

1080 career BF

xwOBA0.276
K%16.7%
BB%4.4%
Barrel5.2%
vs RHH

3501 career BF

xwOBA0.301
K%17.0%
BB%5.4%
Barrel7.3%