Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Williamson, Ben
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
35
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.300 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.269
0.283
0.297
0.312
0.325
wOBA
0.299
0.317
0.338
0.358
0.377
ISO
0.076
0.094
0.114
0.135
0.153
K%
16.5%
17.9%
19.4%
21.0%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
6
-22 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
42
Hard-hit%36.9%
41
xBA0.327
57
xSLG0.436
24
xwOBA0.300
43
BB%8.8%
52
+34 vs proj
Bat speed67.5
24
K%19.7%
67
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
77
Arm Strength89.7 · 2B
74
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
18
Range Runs-2.6 · 2B
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · 2B
75
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
57
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
73
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.6% · rebadged research
60
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.4% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions61.2% · rebadged research
12
Mithrandir Stuff+81
5
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.280 · borderline
69
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · insufficient sample
79
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
80
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · insufficient sample
18
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336 · validated
57
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366 · validated
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
27
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
116 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.013 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.025 |
| Sample | 239 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 349 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.267 to 0.348 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.112 | 0.045 to 0.196 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 33.5% to 49.1% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 21.5% | 16.2% to 26.3% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 5.6% | 2.8% to 9.3% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.263 to 0.360 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
96 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.157 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
206 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.149 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |