Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Williamson, Ben
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 26
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.294 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.303 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.298 |
| Observed weight | 41% |
xwOBA
0.267
0.282
0.298
0.314
0.329
wOBA
0.326
0.350
0.376
0.402
0.426
ISO
0.068
0.090
0.114
0.138
0.160
K%
16.6%
18.3%
20.1%
21.9%
23.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%10.3%
69
+53 vs proj
Barrel%0.6%
3
-26 vs proj
Bat speed67.5
24
Exit velocity88.3
48
Hard-hit%41.3%
56
K%21.3%
55
xBA0.328
57
xSLG0.437
26
xwOBA0.303
43
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength83.9 · 2B
35
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · 2B
15
Range Runs-1.7 · 2B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 2B
75
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
75
SB Success Rate75.0% · 2B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.5% · rebadged research
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.7% · rebadged research
7
Correct Decisions60.6% · rebadged research
11
Mithrandir Stuff+79
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · borderline
47
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · insufficient sample
70
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.262 · validated thin sample
85
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
72
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373 · validated
18
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
20
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
102 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.063 |
| Sample | 155 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 349 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.313 | 0.267 to 0.348 | +/- 0.041 |
| ISO | 0.112 | 0.045 to 0.196 | +/- 0.076 |
| Barrel% | 3.6% | 1.2% to 6.0% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 38.6% | 33.5% to 49.1% | +/- 7.8% |
| K% | 21.5% | 16.2% to 26.3% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 5.6% | 2.8% to 9.3% | +/- 3.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.263 to 0.360 | +/- 0.049 |
vs LHP
96 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.157 |
| K% | 11.3% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
206 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.149 |
| K% | 12.2% |
| BB% | 2.8% |
| Barrel | 1.5% |