Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Boyle, Joe

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.8% K%
Range
18.9% to 31.8%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 27 Status Out / inactive
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
46
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
55
Arsenal4 metrics
69
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace5.21
ERA rolling p504.29
Observed weight29%
ERA
2.96 3.59 4.29 4.99 5.62
FIP
2.77 3.15 3.56 3.97 4.35
K%
20.8% 23.1% 25.7% 28.2% 30.6%
BB%
9.1% 10.4% 11.7% 13.1% 14.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.29
57
ERA5.21
23
BB%13.4%
9
K%27.8%
85 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.307
58
Barrel allowed5.5%
81 +28 vs proj
Fastball velo97.2
90
Hard-hit allowed40.0%
38
Whiff%23.5%
58 -27 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-27
Fastball Stuff+106
79
Mithrandir Stuff+105
80
Sinker Stuff+100
31
Slider Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Boyle, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.307 2026-09-13: 0.3072026-09-14: 0.3072026-09-18: 0.3072026-09-19: 0.3072026-09-20: 0.3072026-09-21: 0.3072026-09-22: 0.3072026-09-23: 0.3072026-09-24: 0.3072026-09-25: 0.3072026-09-26: 0.3072026-09-27: 0.307 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Boyle, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 24%24%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyle, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 33.3%4-Seam Fastball: 24.2%Sinker: 16.2%Split-Finger: 14.0%Sweeper: 12.4% SL33% · 89 mphprimary pitch SL 33%FF 24%SI 16%FS 14%ST 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Boyle, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 33% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 89.1 mphSL89 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 97.2 mphFF97 mphSinker: 16% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 97.3 mphSI97 mphSplit-Finger: 14% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 92.5 mphFS92 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.9 mphST85 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 52.4% 152 107 limited sample
FB 25.9% 75 106 limited sample
SI 21.7% 63 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 49%, Slider 35%, Split-Finger 16%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+1.46
K% Δ+0.031
Sample21.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.6----
Batters Faced309----
K%24.8%18.9% to 31.8%+/- 6.4%
BB%11.5%8.6% to 14.9%+/- 3.1%
Whiff%27.5%21.8% to 32.3%+/- 5.2%
HR/91.020.47 to 1.72+/- 0.63
xwOBA Against0.3080.225 to 0.324+/- 0.050
Barrel% Allowed7.2%4.0% to 10.0%+/- 3.0%
ERA3.752.54 to 6.01+/- 1.73
FIP3.892.60 to 4.65+/- 1.02
WHIP1.3321.029 to 1.637+/- 0.304
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

309 career BF

xwOBA0.268
K%21.9%
BB%13.9%
Barrel6.8%
vs RHH

278 career BF

xwOBA0.249
K%22.5%
BB%10.1%
Barrel5.9%