Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Walk rate keeps the offensive floor healthy even if the batted-ball results wobble.
Hitter projection / MIA · 2026
Hicks, Liam
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team MIA
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 27
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.321 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.326 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.314
0.326
0.338
0.349
wOBA
0.332
0.352
0.373
0.394
0.413
ISO
0.140
0.154
0.170
0.185
0.199
K%
10.2%
11.5%
12.9%
14.3%
15.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%8.9%
50
Barrel%3.4%
27
Bat speed65.9
11
Exit velocity86.0
23
Hard-hit%33.2%
23
K%8.9%
100
+16 vs proj
xBA0.286
19
xSLG0.425
22
xwOBA0.321
60
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs-0.2 · C
40
Catcher Throwing0.5 · C
57
Framing Runs-1.2 · C
29
Outs Above Avg1.0 · C
100
Pop Time2.0 · C
32
Range Runs0.7 · C
100
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · C
5
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
15
SB Success Rate100.0% · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.4% · rebadged research
80
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0% · rebadged research
83
Correct Decisions69.8% · rebadged research
82
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline109
89
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · borderline
5
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · insufficient sample
6
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.308 · validated thin sample
3
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · insufficient sample
56
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323 · validated
80
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345 · validated
79
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.001 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.051 |
| Sample | 235 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 403 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 9 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.322 | 0.307 to 0.356 | +/- 0.025 |
| ISO | 0.126 | 0.110 to 0.211 | +/- 0.050 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 2.0% to 5.8% | +/- 1.9% |
| Hard-Hit% | 30.0% | 25.5% to 39.9% | +/- 7.2% |
| K% | 16.0% | 12.6% to 22.4% | +/- 4.9% |
| BB% | 9.9% | 7.3% to 13.0% | +/- 2.8% |
| BABIP | 0.283 | 0.274 to 0.342 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
70 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.191 |
| K% | 10.1% |
| BB% | 7.0% |
| Barrel | 1.7% |
vs RHP
336 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.206 |
| K% | 8.6% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 2.0% |