Kelly, Kevin
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.54 |
| ERA current pace | 2.92 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.35 |
| Observed weight | 30% |
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | 61.3% | 222 | 107 | qualified |
| CH | 21.0% | 76 | 102 | limited sample |
| SL | 12.2% | 44 | 108 | limited sample |
| FB | 4.7% | 17 | 96 | limited sample |
| FC | 0.8% | 3 | 92 | limited sample |
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.06 |
| K% Δ | -0.031 |
| Sample | 28.7 IP |
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 39.1 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 164 | -- | -- |
| K% | 21.2% | 16.6% to 31.0% | +/- 7.2% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 1.9% to 8.8% | +/- 3.5% |
| Whiff% | 20.5% | 16.3% to 27.3% | +/- 5.5% |
| HR/9 | 1.41 | 0.42 to 2.02 | +/- 0.80 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.318 | 0.257 to 0.380 | +/- 0.061 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 8.0% | 4.2% to 12.0% | +/- 3.9% |
| ERA | 4.00 | 1.80 to 6.09 | +/- 2.15 |
| FIP | 3.93 | 2.36 to 5.74 | +/- 1.69 |
| WHIP | 1.174 | 0.910 to 1.502 | +/- 0.296 |
316 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.314 |
| K% | 20.9% |
| BB% | 4.5% |
| Barrel | 8.8% |
470 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.285 |
| K% | 21.5% |
| BB% | 3.6% |
| Barrel | 7.1% |