Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Kelly, Kevin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
21.2% K%
Range
16.5% to 31.0%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Volatile contact Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
69
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal5 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.54
ERA current pace2.44
ERA rolling p503.08
Observed weight42%
ERA
1.54 2.27 3.08 3.89 4.61
FIP
2.54 3.12 3.75 4.39 4.97
K%
15.9% 18.1% 20.4% 22.8% 24.9%
BB%
3.0% 4.0% 5.2% 6.3% 7.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.93
94
ERA2.44
88
BB%4.6%
98
K%18.3%
20 -20 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.321
43
Barrel allowed6.9%
63 +19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed48.9%
3
Whiff%15.9%
4 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Sinker Stuff+107
88
Changeup Stuff+103
60
Fastball Stuff+95
13
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Slider Stuff+107
87
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 59%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Kelly, Kevin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.321 2026-07-05: 0.3152026-07-06: 0.3152026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3222026-07-10: 0.3222026-07-11: 0.3222026-07-12: 0.3172026-07-13: 0.3172026-07-14: 0.3212026-07-15: 0.3212026-07-16: 0.321 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Kelly, Kevin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 16%16%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 49%49% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 59.5%Changeup: 23.8%Sweeper: 10.8%4-Seam Fastball: 4.9%Cutter: 1.0% SI59% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 59%CH 24%ST 11%FF 5%FC 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Kelly, Kevin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 59% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphChangeup: 24% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 78.3 mphST78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 5% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 89.1 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 60.2% 239 107 qualified
CH 22.7% 90 103 limited sample
SL 11.6% 46 107 limited sample
FB 4.8% 19 95 limited sample
FC 0.8% 3 92 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Needs the arsenal to hold up against lefties (0.314 vs 0.285 xwOBA allowed split).
pitcher
2
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 59%, Sweeper 20%, Cutter 13%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.54
K% Δ-0.029
Sample45.0 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings38.5----
Batters Faced161----
K%21.2%16.5% to 31.0%+/- 7.3%
BB%5.4%1.9% to 8.8%+/- 3.5%
Whiff%20.5%16.3% to 27.3%+/- 5.5%
HR/91.400.42 to 2.02+/- 0.80
xwOBA Against0.3180.257 to 0.380+/- 0.061
Barrel% Allowed8.0%4.2% to 12.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.981.80 to 6.09+/- 2.15
FIP3.932.36 to 5.74+/- 1.69
WHIP1.1740.910 to 1.502+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

316 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%20.9%
BB%4.5%
Barrel8.8%
vs RHH

470 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%21.5%
BB%3.6%
Barrel7.1%