Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Pepiot, Ryan

Breaking-ball driven starter profile

Primary
24.0% K%
Range
19.9% to 30.2%
Live Δ
--
Team TB Archetype Breaking-ball attack Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.94
ERA current pace1.80
ERA rolling p503.75
Observed weight9%
ERA
2.56 3.13 3.75 4.38 4.95
FIP
3.62 4.02 4.47 4.91 5.32
K%
17.9% 20.2% 22.7% 25.2% 27.4%
BB%
6.0% 7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 10.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Insufficient sample

Percentile strips appear after the current-season sample clears the threshold.

Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher.

Stuff+ pending

No current Stuff+ row is available for this pitcher in the latest daily scoring artifact. The profile keeps this block visible so missing coverage is explicit rather than silent.

Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

0 snapshots
No chart yet

No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Pepiot, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 12%12%First pitch strike: 30%30%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2025 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types.

2025
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pepiot, Ryan · 2025 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.1%Changeup: 25.1%Slider: 17.6%Cutter: 6.4%Curveball: 3.3%Sinker: 2.6% FF45% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 45%CH 25%SL 18%FC 6%CU 3%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Pepiot, Ryan · 2025 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.2 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 86.8 mphCH87 mphSlider: 18% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.0 mphSL89 mphCutter: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 91.6 mphFC92 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 53″ drop, 80.7 mphCU81 mphSinker: 3% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 94.7 mphSI95 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.1 mphPO95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 45%, Changeup 25%, Slider 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

No Live State delta is available for this player yet.

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings143.0----
Batters Faced592----
K%24.0%19.9% to 30.2%+/- 5.2%
BB%8.5%6.1% to 10.8%+/- 2.4%
Whiff%24.2%21.0% to 28.7%+/- 3.9%
HR/91.370.89 to 2.08+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3120.274 to 0.341+/- 0.033
Barrel% Allowed8.7%5.8% to 12.8%+/- 3.5%
ERA3.633.00 to 5.60+/- 1.30
FIP4.193.13 to 4.99+/- 0.93
WHIP1.2461.028 to 1.436+/- 0.204
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

862 career BF

xwOBA0.286
K%24.2%
BB%9.7%
Barrel9.3%
vs RHH

830 career BF

xwOBA0.295
K%22.5%
BB%6.9%
Barrel10.2%