Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Jax, Griffin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
29.2% K%
Range
25.0% to 40.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace3.30
ERA rolling p503.63
Observed weight35%
ERA
2.36 2.96 3.63 4.30 4.90
FIP
2.52 2.99 3.50 4.02 4.48
K%
22.1% 24.7% 27.5% 30.3% 32.8%
BB%
6.3% 7.4% 8.5% 9.7% 10.8%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.5%
19 -44 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
75 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo96.2
78
Hard-hit allowed36.8%
65
K%20.8%
38 -51 vs proj
Whiff%27.1%
78
xwOBA allowed0.325
42 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+108
91
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jax, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.3592026-05-19: 0.3592026-05-21: 0.3342026-05-23: 0.3342026-05-24: 0.3342026-05-25: 0.3342026-05-26: 0.3342026-05-28: 0.3252026-05-29: 0.3252026-05-30: 0.3252026-05-31: 0.3252026-06-01: 0.325 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jax, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 26.3%4-Seam Fastball: 22.6%Changeup: 18.9%Sinker: 18.9%Curveball: 6.8%Cutter: 6.4% MIX ST 26%FF 23%CH 19%SI 19%CU 7%FC 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot ST: HB -0.3, IVB 2.9STFF: HB -0.2, IVB 1.0FFCH: HB -0.9, IVB 2.4CHSI: HB 0.7, IVB 1.5SICU: HB 0.4, IVB 4.2CUFC: HB 0.1, IVB 1.9FC horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 26.2% 127 108 limited sample
FB 22.7% 110 108 limited sample
CH 19.0% 92 112 limited sample
SI 19.0% 92 104 limited sample
CB 6.6% 32 103 limited sample
FC 6.4% 31 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 43%, Changeup 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.13
K% Δ-0.084
Sample30.7 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings68.1----
Batters Faced283----
K%29.2%25.0% to 40.7%+/- 7.8%
BB%7.9%4.5% to 10.1%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%30.4%28.3% to 38.2%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.050.65 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2680.236 to 0.317+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.4% to 12.1%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.432.27 to 5.71+/- 1.72
FIP2.871.58 to 4.24+/- 1.33
WHIP1.1180.933 to 1.524+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

674 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%30.3%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

882 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%30.5%
BB%5.7%
Barrel8.9%