Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TB · 2026

Jax, Griffin

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
29.2% K%
Range
25.0% to 40.7%
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced reliever Age 32 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
51
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
52
Arsenal7 metrics
86
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.81
ERA current pace3.47
ERA rolling p503.62
Observed weight55%
ERA
2.40 2.98 3.62 4.27 4.85
FIP
2.83 3.27 3.77 4.27 4.71
K%
23.5% 25.3% 27.4% 29.5% 31.4%
BB%
6.1% 6.9% 7.8% 8.7% 9.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.23
64
ERA3.47
65
BB%8.6%
51
K%24.4%
63 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.352
15 -75 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
16 -25 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
73
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
33
Whiff%28.4%
86
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Mithrandir Stuff+109
95
Slider Stuff+110
94
Changeup Stuff+110
93
Curveball Stuff+104
85
Cutter Stuff+103
61
Fastball Stuff+108
89
Sinker Stuff+106
84
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Jax, Griffin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.352 2026-07-05: 0.3542026-07-06: 0.3542026-07-07: 0.3542026-07-08: 0.3462026-07-09: 0.3462026-07-10: 0.3462026-07-11: 0.3462026-07-12: 0.3462026-07-13: 0.3522026-07-14: 0.3522026-07-15: 0.3522026-07-16: 0.352 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Jax, Griffin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sweeper: 26.0%Changeup: 22.4%Sinker: 20.1%4-Seam Fastball: 17.9%Curveball: 8.9%Cutter: 4.7% ST26% · 88 mphprimary pitch ST 26%CH 22%SI 20%FF 18%CU 9%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Jax, Griffin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sweeper: 26% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.0 mphST88 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 91.3 mphCH91 mphSinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 95.6 mphSI96 mph4-Seam Fastball: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 96.2 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 85.2 mphCU85 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 92.8 mphFC93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 25.7% 200 110 qualified
CH 21.9% 170 110 limited sample
SI 19.4% 151 106 limited sample
FB 19.2% 149 108 limited sample
CB 8.5% 66 104 limited sample
FC 5.3% 41 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sweeper 43%, Changeup 23%, 4-Seam Fastball 18%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+0.04
K% Δ-0.048
Sample69.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings67.8----
Batters Faced282----
K%29.2%25.0% to 40.7%+/- 7.8%
BB%7.9%4.5% to 10.1%+/- 2.8%
Whiff%30.4%28.3% to 38.2%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.050.65 to 1.77+/- 0.56
xwOBA Against0.2680.236 to 0.317+/- 0.041
Barrel% Allowed8.2%6.4% to 12.1%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.432.27 to 5.72+/- 1.72
FIP2.871.58 to 4.24+/- 1.33
WHIP1.1180.933 to 1.524+/- 0.296
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

674 career BF

xwOBA0.273
K%30.3%
BB%7.1%
Barrel8.4%
vs RHH

882 career BF

xwOBA0.258
K%30.5%
BB%5.7%
Barrel8.9%