Mithrandir Metrics
Hitter projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Hitter projection / TB · 2026

Caminero, Junior

Everyday offensive profile with usable floor

Primary
0.345 xwOBA
Range
0.331 to 0.396
Live Δ
yes
Team TB Archetype Balanced regular Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
91
Offense
percentile
Offense9 metrics
89
Defense4 metrics
46
Speed2 metrics
19
Plate skills10 metrics
50
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
xwOBA preseason0.345
xwOBA current pace0.372
xwOBA rolling p500.363
Observed weight66%
xwOBA
0.340 0.351 0.363 0.375 0.385
wOBA
0.381 0.395 0.411 0.427 0.441
ISO
0.227 0.239 0.252 0.266 0.278
K%
16.6% 17.6% 18.7% 19.9% 20.9%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.6%
94
Exit velocity93.5
97
Hard-hit%52.8%
96
xBA0.349
77
xSLG0.647
86
xwOBA0.372
94
BB%12.6%
88 +56 vs proj
Bat speed78.3
100
K%18.6%
71
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 3B
77
Arm Strength90.2 · 3B
78
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-9.6 · 3B
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · 3B
14
Sprint Speed26.3 · 3B
24
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+

SEAGER+ and decision components

SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.

2026-07-16
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.6% · rebadged research
65
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.3% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
57
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
85
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.262 · borderline
92
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
28
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.363 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.424 · validated
0
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.405 · validated
2
Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA Caminero, Junior · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.308 0.372 2026-07-05: 0.3722026-07-06: 0.3762026-07-07: 0.3742026-07-08: 0.3712026-07-09: 0.3692026-07-10: 0.3662026-07-11: 0.3702026-07-12: 0.3722026-07-13: 0.3732026-07-14: 0.3712026-07-15: 0.3712026-07-16: 0.372 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Junior Caminero's tools (82) outpace production (78) by 5 points. Primary finding: groundball-heavy approach with the raw power to drive the ball — leaving fly-ball damage on the table. Most actionable fix: elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Launch Angle Too Low
+20.7° Current -5° → Target 16°

Elevate bat path to increase average launch angle toward 12-18° range

Solid = current angle. Dotted = recommended window.
Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

210 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

All BIP Singles Doubles Triples HR vs LHP vs RHP Home / Away
Mithrandir Metrics SPRAY CHART Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Spray Chart Caminero, Junior · Statcast batted-ball landing coordinates Left field third: 15% of plotted batted ballsPull 15%Center field third: 74% of plotted batted ballsCenter 74%Right field third: 10% of plotted batted ballsOppo 10% LF 318 CF 408 RF 314 2026-03-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 91.0 / LA -13.02026-03-17 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.7 / LA 7.02026-03-20 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 106.8 / LA 17.02026-03-20 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 96.4 / LA 16.02026-03-20 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.1 / LA 29.02026-03-21 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 109.9 / LA 16.02026-03-21 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 98.8 / LA 33.02026-03-22 · field out · ST · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 17.02026-03-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.6 / LA -11.02026-03-24 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 107.5 / LA 0.02026-03-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 112.0 / LA -4.02026-03-26 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 102.3 / LA 13.02026-03-28 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 94.2 / LA 44.02026-03-28 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 105.9 / LA 7.02026-03-28 · field out · SI · popup · EV 75.5 / LA 84.02026-03-29 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 73.8 / LA 29.02026-03-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 107.3 / LA 2.02026-03-29 · field out · CH · popup · EV 80.6 / LA 84.02026-03-30 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 87.1 / LA 14.02026-03-30 · field out · SV · line_drive · EV 87.5 / LA 20.02026-03-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 116.9 / LA 8.02026-03-30 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 109.7 / LA -7.02026-03-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA -36.02026-03-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.8 / LA 1.02026-04-01 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 77.8 / LA 29.02026-04-01 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 95.0 / LA -15.02026-04-03 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 8.02026-04-03 · field out · SL · popup · EV 51.0 / LA 58.02026-04-03 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 71.8 / LA -57.02026-04-03 · field out · FF · line_drive · EV 88.3 / LA 22.02026-04-03 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 114.0 / LA 12.02026-04-04 · force out · FF · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -3.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · popup · EV 85.2 / LA 74.02026-04-04 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 83.2 / LA -17.02026-04-04 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 90.8 / LA 51.02026-04-04 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 10.02026-04-05 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 69.9 / LA 47.02026-04-05 · home run · FS · fly_ball · EV 103.2 / LA 28.02026-04-05 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 57.4 / LA -72.02026-04-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 104.9 / LA 41.02026-04-06 · field out · FF · popup · EV 91.5 / LA 63.02026-04-06 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 28.02026-04-06 · field out · SL · popup · EV 86.3 / LA 75.02026-04-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -8.02026-04-08 · field out · FC · popup · EV 77.5 / LA 81.02026-04-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.3 / LA -41.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · popup · EV 83.2 / LA 85.02026-04-10 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 98.2 / LA 8.02026-04-10 · single · FC · fly_ball · EV 72.9 / LA 37.02026-04-11 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 78.9 / LA -7.02026-04-11 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 111.1 / LA -12.02026-04-11 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 110.2 / LA 13.02026-04-12 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.7 / LA 4.02026-04-12 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 97.9 / LA -4.02026-04-12 · sac fly · FC · fly_ball · EV 92.7 / LA 52.02026-04-14 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.5 / LA -19.02026-04-14 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 84.3 / LA -14.02026-04-14 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 92.9 / LA -25.02026-04-15 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 100.2 / LA 2.02026-04-15 · home run · KC · line_drive · EV 104.8 / LA 24.02026-04-15 · field out · EP · fly_ball · EV 84.5 / LA 41.02026-04-16 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 94.9 / LA 34.02026-04-16 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 87.0 / LA 51.02026-04-16 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 4.02026-04-16 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 100.4 / LA 21.02026-04-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 74.2 / LA -29.02026-04-17 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 106.9 / LA 13.02026-04-17 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 100.0 / LA -1.02026-04-18 · single · FS · fly_ball · EV 66.6 / LA 27.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.8 / LA -12.02026-04-18 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 109.2 / LA 17.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.3 / LA -67.02026-04-18 · field out · SL · popup · EV 47.5 / LA 60.02026-04-18 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 41.02026-04-18 · double play · FF · ground_ball · EV 102.3 / LA -18.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 100.5 / LA 47.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 109.5 / LA -6.02026-04-19 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 83.9 / LA 35.02026-04-19 · home run · SL · fly_ball · EV 103.0 / LA 29.02026-04-20 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 56.4 / LA -74.02026-04-20 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 112.6 / LA 4.02026-04-20 · field out · SI · popup · EV 84.7 / LA 61.02026-04-20 · single · SL · line_drive · EV 87.8 / LA 18.02026-04-21 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 113.1 / LA 6.02026-04-21 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 111.8 / LA -8.02026-04-21 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 107.9 / LA -9.02026-04-22 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 110.0 / LA -32.02026-04-22 · field out · SI · popup · EV 86.6 / LA 78.02026-04-22 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 106.8 / LA 32.02026-04-22 · field out · CU · popup · EV 75.7 / LA 52.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.0 / LA 26.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 70.3 / LA -21.02026-04-24 · field out · FC · popup · EV 92.2 / LA 61.02026-04-24 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 112.7 / LA 21.02026-04-25 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 109.2 / LA -8.02026-04-25 · single · CH · ground_ball · EV 108.5 / LA 2.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 77.1 / LA -17.02026-04-25 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA 9.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.4 / LA -11.02026-04-26 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 72.8 / LA -19.02026-04-26 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 58.02026-04-26 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.4 / LA 1.02026-04-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 91.5 / LA -29.02026-04-27 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 114.1 / LA 2.02026-04-28 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 58.1 / LA -57.02026-04-29 · field out · ST · ground_ball · EV 77.8 / LA -52.02026-04-29 · single · pitch · line_drive2026-05-01 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 112.9 / LA 25.02026-05-01 · field out · CH · popup · EV 87.0 / LA 70.02026-05-02 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 67.8 / LA -46.02026-05-03 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 91.8 / LA 0.02026-05-03 · single · FS · ground_ball · EV 110.5 / LA 3.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 77.3 / LA -21.02026-05-04 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 97.1 / LA -18.02026-05-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 76.3 / LA 15.02026-05-05 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 82.2 / LA 27.02026-05-05 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 60.2 / LA -41.02026-05-06 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 89.0 / LA -23.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 81.2 / LA 11.02026-05-06 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 103.4 / LA -1.02026-05-07 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 115.8 / LA -13.02026-05-07 · home run · SI · line_drive · EV 114.3 / LA 19.02026-05-07 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 102.7 / LA 3.02026-05-07 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -23.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA 2.02026-05-08 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 92.6 / LA 2.02026-05-08 · field out · CH · line_drive · EV 104.2 / LA 14.02026-05-08 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 75.3 / LA -23.02026-05-10 · home run · CU · fly_ball · EV 105.2 / LA 31.02026-05-10 · field out · CH · fly_ball · EV 86.0 / LA 60.02026-05-10 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 96.0 / LA 48.02026-05-11 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 51.7 / LA -66.02026-05-11 · field out · FS · ground_ball · EV 79.2 / LA -25.02026-05-11 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 106.5 / LA 8.02026-05-11 · field out · FF · ground_ball · EV 93.5 / LA 2.02026-05-12 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 114.6 / LA 9.02026-05-12 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 80.2 / LA 21.02026-05-12 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 102.6 / LA 42.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 85.7 / LA 56.02026-05-12 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 75.5 / LA -15.02026-05-13 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 80.4 / LA 49.02026-05-13 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 111.4 / LA 7.02026-05-13 · force out · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA -15.02026-05-15 · field out · CH · ground_ball · EV 88.5 / LA -34.02026-05-15 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 89.8 / LA 40.02026-05-15 · field out · ST · popup · EV 90.2 / LA 60.02026-05-16 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 105.7 / LA -11.02026-05-16 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 66.7 / LA -7.02026-05-16 · single · SL · ground_ball · EV 70.5 / LA -66.02026-05-16 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.4 / LA -24.02026-05-16 · double · ST · fly_ball · EV 99.9 / LA 28.02026-05-17 · home run · ST · line_drive · EV 104.0 / LA 21.02026-05-18 · field out · FA · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 33.02026-05-18 · field error · CH · ground_ball · EV 98.5 / LA 5.02026-05-18 · home run · FC · fly_ball · EV 105.8 / LA 23.02026-05-18 · single · CH · line_drive · EV 116.8 / LA 10.02026-05-19 · double · SL · line_drive · EV 107.8 / LA 21.02026-05-20 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 96.8 / LA -13.02026-05-20 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 115.8 / LA 10.02026-05-20 · field out · KC · ground_ball · EV 86.8 / LA -41.02026-05-20 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 101.2 / LA 12.02026-05-22 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 113.8 / LA -3.02026-05-22 · field out · FF · fly_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 53.02026-05-22 · field out · SL · line_drive · EV 96.5 / LA 19.02026-05-24 · single · FF · ground_ball · EV 90.3 / LA 0.02026-05-24 · grounded into double play · CH · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -7.02026-05-24 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 88.9 / LA 51.02026-05-25 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 96.3 / LA -43.02026-05-25 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.0 / LA 9.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 76.1 / LA -15.02026-05-25 · field out · SL · fly_ball · EV 97.0 / LA 27.02026-05-26 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 102.9 / LA 46.02026-05-26 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 105.6 / LA 1.02026-05-26 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 116.9 / LA 8.02026-05-27 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 75.1 / LA 1.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 93.7 / LA 34.02026-05-27 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 102.9 / LA -8.02026-05-31 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 109.0 / LA -1.02026-05-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 63.3 / LA -60.02026-05-31 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 100.3 / LA -15.02026-06-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 64.4 / LA -9.02026-06-01 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 109.1 / LA -5.02026-06-01 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 110.4 / LA 33.02026-06-05 · double · SI · line_drive · EV 108.7 / LA 13.02026-06-05 · double · FC · line_drive · EV 109.3 / LA 16.02026-06-05 · single · FF · line_drive · EV 89.6 / LA 11.02026-06-07 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 82.5 / LA 32.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 59.1 / LA 10.02026-06-07 · grounded into double play · CU · ground_ball · EV 104.0 / LA 0.02026-06-07 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 87.4 / LA -22.02026-06-15 · single · FC · line_drive · EV 111.5 / LA 12.02026-06-15 · field out · CU · ground_ball · EV 75.9 / LA -49.02026-06-15 · double · FF · line_drive · EV 108.9 / LA 17.02026-06-20 · single · ST · line_drive · EV 104.3 / LA 9.02026-06-20 · single · SI · ground_ball · EV 90.8 / LA -14.02026-06-20 · single · CU · line_drive · EV 73.7 / LA 18.02026-06-20 · sac fly · ST · line_drive · EV 95.7 / LA 17.02026-06-22 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 81.3 / LA -15.02026-06-22 · field out · FC · ground_ball · EV 115.8 / LA 1.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · fly_ball · EV 84.3 / LA 32.02026-06-22 · field out · SI · ground_ball · EV 83.4 / LA -36.02026-06-26 · field out · ST · fly_ball · EV 96.7 / LA 55.02026-06-26 · field out · SL · ground_ball · EV 87.8 / LA -3.02026-06-26 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 111.3 / LA 25.02026-06-30 · home run · FF · fly_ball · EV 108.6 / LA 29.02026-06-30 · single · SI · line_drive · EV 114.1 / LA 9.02026-06-30 · field out · FC · fly_ball · EV 91.5 / LA 56.02026-06-30 · grounded into double play · SI · ground_ball · EV 103.7 / LA -18.02026-06-30 · grounded into double play · SL · ground_ball · EV 73.9 / LA -11.02026-07-01 · home run · SI · fly_ball · EV 104.8 / LA 27.0 1B2B3BHROut Zone shading = batted-ball density by field third · hover dots for date, pitch, EV, and LA. MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics BAT SPEED DISTRIBUTION Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Bat Speed Caminero, Junior · aggregate bat speed marker 60 mph 85 mph Avg bat speed 79.6 mph Hard swing rate 86% Whiff / swing 26% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Swing Zone Profile Caminero, Junior · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Zone: 42%42%Chase: 28%28%Whiff: 21%21%Zone contact: 87%87%Contact: 79%79%Hard hit: 53%53% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Live context

Current-season signal

xwOBA Δ+0.027
wOBA Δ+0.066
Sample429 PA

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Plate Appearances554----
Home Runs31----
Stolen Bases0----
xwOBA0.3450.331 to 0.396+/- 0.033
ISO0.2130.177 to 0.284+/- 0.054
Barrel%9.2%6.8% to 11.6%+/- 2.4%
Hard-Hit%51.2%46.2% to 55.7%+/- 4.7%
K%18.1%15.7% to 23.9%+/- 4.1%
BB%7.2%5.5% to 10.2%+/- 2.4%
BABIP0.2740.243 to 0.310+/- 0.033
Platoon / Shape
vs LHP

243 career PA

xwOBA0.270
K%13.5%
BB%5.7%
Barrel7.7%
vs RHP

650 career PA

xwOBA0.271
K%15.5%
BB%4.9%
Barrel8.5%