Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Caminero, Junior
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.345 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.371 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.359 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.334
0.346
0.359
0.373
0.385
wOBA
0.363
0.381
0.402
0.422
0.441
ISO
0.186
0.200
0.216
0.232
0.246
K%
14.5%
15.6%
16.9%
18.1%
19.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%13.3%
88
+56 vs proj
Barrel%9.1%
89
Bat speed78.3
100
Exit velocity93.1
95
Hard-hit%50.3%
91
K%15.2%
86
xBA0.336
62
xSLG0.590
73
xwOBA0.371
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength89.8 · 3B
81
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-10.0 · 3B
1
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.1 · 3B
21
SB Success Rate0.0% · 3B
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.2% · rebadged research
64
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.3% · rebadged research
88
Correct Decisions66.2% · rebadged research
50
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
81
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline
88
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
32
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.268 · validated thin sample
74
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · insufficient sample
8
Resists FastballwOBA 0.399 · validated
2
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.387 · validated
6
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
180 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.026 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.057 |
| Sample | 264 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 554 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 31 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.345 | 0.331 to 0.396 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.213 | 0.177 to 0.284 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 9.2% | 6.8% to 11.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 51.2% | 46.2% to 55.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| K% | 18.1% | 15.7% to 23.9% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 5.5% to 10.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.243 to 0.310 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
243 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |
vs RHP
650 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |