Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TB · 2026
Caminero, Junior
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TB
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
91
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.345 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.362 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.358 |
| Observed weight | 76% |
xwOBA
0.339
0.348
0.358
0.368
0.377
wOBA
0.369
0.380
0.393
0.405
0.416
ISO
0.217
0.226
0.237
0.248
0.257
K%
16.6%
17.4%
18.3%
19.2%
20.0%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%9.2%
96
Exit velocity92.8
97
Hard-hit%50.2%
94
xBA0.343
77
xSLG0.623
85
xwOBA0.362
95
BB%11.1%
81
+47 vs proj
Bat speed77.8
100
K%18.1%
77
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 3B
70
Arm Strength90.2 · 3B
74
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-8.5 · 3B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · 3B
13
Bolts1.0 · 3B
11
Sprint Speed26.7 · 3B
30
SB Success Rate33.3% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9% · rebadged research
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.2% · rebadged research
85
Correct Decisions66.1% · rebadged research
50
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
68
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.388 · validated
7
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
77
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · insufficient sample
47
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288 · validated thin sample
27
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.364 · insufficient sample
4
Resists FastballwOBA 0.422 · validated
0
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
300 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.017 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.047 |
| Sample | 714 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 554 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 31 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.345 | 0.331 to 0.396 | +/- 0.033 |
| ISO | 0.213 | 0.177 to 0.284 | +/- 0.054 |
| Barrel% | 9.2% | 6.8% to 11.6% | +/- 2.4% |
| Hard-Hit% | 51.2% | 46.2% to 55.7% | +/- 4.7% |
| K% | 18.1% | 15.7% to 23.9% | +/- 4.1% |
| BB% | 7.2% | 5.5% to 10.2% | +/- 2.4% |
| BABIP | 0.274 | 0.243 to 0.310 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
243 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 13.5% |
| BB% | 5.7% |
| Barrel | 7.7% |
vs RHP
650 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.271 |
| K% | 15.5% |
| BB% | 4.9% |
| Barrel | 8.5% |