Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
DET vs PHI | 6.53 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs DET | 6.39 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 6.15 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIL | 5.71 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIN | 5.55 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SD | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs LAA | 5.38 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs AZ | 5.07 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs KC | 5.03 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs SEA | 5.00 | 25.0% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIA | 4.97 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 4.94 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 4.83 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs WSH | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs BAL | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jr. Ritchie
Probable starter
|
ATL vs STL | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mitch Bratt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs LAD | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATH | 4.21 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs ATL | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CWS | 4.14 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Zach Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs BOS | 4.09 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 4.01 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TB | 3.90 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYM | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CLE | 3.50 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYY | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Germán Márquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs TOR | 3.42 | 17.2% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PIT | 3.40 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 3.06 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.