Mithrandir Metrics
Player Baltimore Orioles Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles

Shane Baz

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 200 lb · Age 27

Cards
28
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Baltimore Orioles Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024433.061414079.1691.06
202510124.8731310166.11761.33
20266154.1131310179.21541.35
5 Seasons23324.1985850465.24471.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
48
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
47
Arsenal6 metrics
58
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.64
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.00
Observed weight77%
ERA
3.01 3.48 4.00 4.52 5.00
FIP
3.11 3.37 3.67 3.96 4.22
K%
19.3% 20.1% 21.1% 22.0% 22.8%
BB%
6.9% 7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
49
ERA4.11
49
BB%8.0%
62
K%20.2%
36 -23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.317
45
Barrel allowed6.8%
61 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
72
Hard-hit allowed41.1%
31
Whiff%19.1%
20 -44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Curveball Stuff+104
79
Cutter Stuff+102
58
Fastball Stuff+104
62
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Changeup Stuff+98
22
Sinker Stuff+104
65
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Baz, Shane · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.317 2026-09-13: 0.3132026-09-14: 0.3132026-09-18: 0.3152026-09-19: 0.3152026-09-20: 0.3152026-09-21: 0.3152026-09-22: 0.3172026-09-23: 0.3172026-09-24: 0.3172026-09-25: 0.3172026-09-26: 0.3172026-09-27: 0.317 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Baz, Shane · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baz, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.1%Knuckle Curve: 32.9%Cutter: 15.0%Changeup: 9.3%Sinker: 8.7%Other: 0.0% FF34% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 34%KC 33%FC 15%CH 9%SI 9%FA 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Baz, Shane · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 13″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphKnuckle Curve: 33% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 85.3 mphKC85 mphCutter: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 89.6 mphFC90 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 87.7 mphCH88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mphOther: 0% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 79.6 mphFA80 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.4% 621 104 qualified
CB 32.3% 584 104 qualified
FC 16.9% 306 102 qualified
CH 9.1% 165 98 limited sample
SI 7.2% 130 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 3"
Weight200 lb
Debut2021-09-20
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.06
K% Δ-0.031

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.327
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.317

Baz’s wOBA-against sits at 0.327, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.317 — a gap of 0.010, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 183 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching282026-09-21Knuckle Curve played up through KC/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.2% K | 4.05 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ TB1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ PIT0 ER / 5 K5.2 IP
2026-03-29 vs MIN4 ER / 4 K5.1 IP