Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYY | 5.66 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 5.52 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CIN | 5.48 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIN | 5.25 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs BAL | 5.17 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 5.07 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs KC | 4.93 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs TEX | 4.77 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIA | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SEA | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIL | 4.39 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TB | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Chris Murphy
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TOR | 4.28 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATH | 4.28 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAA | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs DET | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs WSH | 4.14 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Luinder Avila
Probable starter
|
KC vs PHI | 4.13 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 4.02 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.98 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 3.93 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Jp Sears
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 3.78 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs AZ | 3.59 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 3.57 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 2 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 3.42 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.