Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Nick Lodolo

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 216 lb · Age 28

Cards
8
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024964.7621210115.11221.20
2025983.3329280156.21561.08
2026215.2177038.0301.45
5 Seasons26234.1683820447.24861.23
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
26
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
28
Arsenal5 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace5.21
ERA rolling p504.48
Observed weight45%
ERA
3.48 3.95 4.48 5.00 5.48
FIP
4.24 4.49 4.78 5.06 5.31
K%
19.2% 20.7% 22.2% 23.8% 25.3%
BB%
5.6% 6.4% 7.2% 8.1% 8.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.43
30
ERA5.21
20
BB%8.7%
50 -36 vs proj
K%19.0%
26 -27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.378
6 -55 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.1%
13 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo94.1
47
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
33
Whiff%19.9%
24 -40 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-14
Changeup Stuff+105
69
Curveball Stuff+99
10
Fastball Stuff+100
33
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Sinker Stuff+112
99
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lodolo, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.378 2026-06-03: 0.3922026-06-04: 0.3922026-06-05: 0.3922026-06-06: 0.3922026-06-07: 0.3922026-06-08: 0.3922026-06-09: 0.3912026-06-10: 0.3912026-06-11: 0.3912026-06-12: 0.3912026-06-13: 0.3912026-06-14: 0.378 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lodolo, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lodolo, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Curveball: 25.9%4-Seam Fastball: 25.5%Sinker: 25.3%Changeup: 23.3% CU26% · 82 mphprimary pitch CU 26%FF 25%SI 25%CH 23% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lodolo, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Curveball: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.2 mphCU82 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 94.2 mphFF94 mphSinker: 25% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 94.0 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 88.4 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.1% 120 100 limited sample
CH 25.7% 118 105 limited sample
CB 25.3% 116 99 limited sample
SI 22.9% 105 112 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 6"
Weight216 lb
Debut2022-04-13
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.07
K% Δ-0.042

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.443
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.378

Lodolo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.443, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.378 — a gap of 0.065, 2.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 42 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching82026-05-254-Seam Fastball played up through CU/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.2% K | 4.14 ERAProjection
2026-03-22 @ CLE2 ER / 0 K0.0 IP