Mithrandir Metrics
Player CIN Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / CIN

Nick Lodolo

Player · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 216 lb · Age 28

Cards
21
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club CIN Position -- Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024964.7621210115.11221.20
2025983.3329280156.21561.08
2026364.9721210108.2831.48
5 Seasons27284.2597960518.15391.27
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
23
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal5 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace5.12
ERA rolling p504.72
Observed weight68%
ERA
3.67 4.17 4.72 5.28 5.78
FIP
4.41 4.67 4.97 5.27 5.53
K%
17.9% 18.9% 19.9% 21.0% 22.0%
BB%
7.0% 7.6% 8.3% 9.0% 9.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
23
ERA5.12
24
BB%9.4%
44 -45 vs proj
K%17.6%
18 -41 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.380
3 -59 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.3%
22
Fastball velo93.7
37
Hard-hit allowed41.4%
30
Whiff%20.3%
29 -36 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Curveball Stuff+98
6
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+100
34
Sinker Stuff+110
95
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lodolo, Nick · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.380 2026-09-12: 0.3802026-09-13: 0.3802026-09-14: 0.3802026-09-18: 0.3772026-09-19: 0.3772026-09-20: 0.3772026-09-21: 0.3792026-09-22: 0.3792026-09-23: 0.3792026-09-24: 0.3792026-09-25: 0.3792026-09-26: 0.380 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 27%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lodolo, Nick · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lodolo, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.8%4-Seam Fastball: 26.6%Curveball: 24.6%Changeup: 22.1% SI27% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 27%FF 27%CU 25%CH 22% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lodolo, Nick · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 27% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mph4-Seam Fastball: 27% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphCurveball: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 82.3 mphCU82 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.0 mphCH88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 27.9% 301 98 qualified
CB 25.2% 271 98 qualified
SI 23.8% 256 110 qualified
CH 23.1% 249 105 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

MLB bio context is unavailable.
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.98
K% Δ-0.055

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.400
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.380

Lodolo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.400, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.380 — a gap of 0.020, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 112 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching212026-09-25Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.2% K | 4.14 ERAProjection