Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 6.52 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TOR | 6.50 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TB | 6.44 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Hunter Greene
Probable starter
|
CIN vs BAL | 6.27 | 28.1% | 31.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 0 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs KC | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 5.87 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs TEX | 5.41 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable starter
|
MIL vs AZ | 5.26 | 26.5% | 29.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 5.20 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs PHI | 4.98 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs CWS | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATH | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYY | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Brendan Beck
Probable starter
|
NYY vs MIN | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs WSH | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Bieber
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SEA | 4.58 | 23.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 4.46 | 25.2% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIL | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs LAA | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs DET | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs MIA | 4.04 | 18.5% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 5 |
Sam Aldegheri
Probable starter
|
LAA vs BOS | 3.96 | 20.5% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 3.96 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs HOU | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 3.70 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs CLE | 3.67 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.41 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CIN | 3.29 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.19 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.