Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs KC | 5.84 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 5.61 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 6 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs ATL | 5.54 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs SF | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs TOR | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs NYM | 4.62 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs PHI | 4.38 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs WSH | 4.31 | 19.7% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 4.27 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 4.20 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.08 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.67 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 3.47 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs HOU | 3.38 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.33 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.