Mithrandir Metrics
Player Minnesota Twins Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 30

Cards
20
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Minnesota Twins Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024773.6023230135.01470.99
202513103.4231300171.01941.04
2026652.8520200110.11281.05
6 Seasons52413.651351340751.28471.06
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
85
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal5 metrics
88
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace2.85
ERA rolling p503.20
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.20 2.67 3.20 3.73 4.21
FIP
2.70 2.95 3.24 3.52 3.78
K%
25.0% 26.1% 27.3% 28.6% 29.7%
BB%
4.3% 4.8% 5.4% 6.0% 6.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
85
ERA2.85
79
BB%5.5%
92
K%27.8%
83
xwOBA allowed0.279
84 +18 vs proj
Barrel allowed11.0%
11 -17 vs proj
Fastball velo93.4
31
Hard-hit allowed43.4%
22
Whiff%23.2%
52
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+107
87
Mithrandir Stuff+108
95
Slider Stuff+107
87
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Sinker Stuff+106
85
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ryan, Joe · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.279 2026-07-05: 0.2802026-07-06: 0.2802026-07-07: 0.2742026-07-08: 0.2742026-07-09: 0.2742026-07-10: 0.2742026-07-11: 0.2742026-07-12: 0.2742026-07-13: 0.2792026-07-14: 0.2792026-07-15: 0.2792026-07-16: 0.279 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 45%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ryan, Joe · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.9%Sweeper: 14.3%Split-Finger: 11.4%Knuckle Curve: 11.2%Sinker: 11.0%Slider: 7.3% FF45% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 45%ST 14%FS 11%KC 11%SI 11%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ryan, Joe · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 45% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.5 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 80.3 mphST80 mphSplit-Finger: 11% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 87.8 mphFS88 mphKnuckle Curve: 11% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 54″ drop, 78.8 mphKC79 mphSinker: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphSlider: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.6 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 49.8% 630 107 qualified
SL 23.3% 294 107 qualified
CB 14.3% 181 105 limited sample
SI 12.6% 159 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 2"
Weight205 lb
Debut2021-09-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.96
K% Δ+0.025

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.305
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.279

Ryan’s wOBA-against sits at 0.305, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.279 — a gap of 0.026, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 118 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching202026-07-11Four-Seam Fastball played up through ST/FS tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.3% K | 3.81 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs HOU1 ER / 9 K6.0 IP
2026-04-17 vs CIN1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-11 @ TOR2 ER / 5 K7.0 IP
2026-04-06 vs DET2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP
2026-04-01 @ KC5 ER / 3 K4.0 IP