Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SF | 6.21 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 5.91 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 5.70 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Woodruff
Probable starter
|
MIL vs AZ | 5.63 | 26.5% | 29.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIN | 5.54 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Webb
Probable starter
|
SF vs PHI | 5.30 | 22.2% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 5 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs DET | 5.23 | 23.1% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 4 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs KC | 4.68 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATL | 4.56 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TOR | 4.34 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs MIL | 4.27 | 23.8% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Lance McCullers Jr.
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BAL | 4.25 | 24.5% | 25.4% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs COL | 4.08 | 17.9% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATH | 4.00 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 3.78 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs CIN | 3.75 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 3.66 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Hunter Dobbins
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.14 | 19.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 0 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 3.00 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.