Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SF | 6.30 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs COL | 6.23 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs MIN | 6.11 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SEA | 5.79 | 26.5% | 26.3% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 5 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs NYY | 5.58 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CWS | 5.54 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TEX | 5.53 | 29.7% | 32.2% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 5 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIA | 5.49 | 27.3% | 28.5% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs TB | 4.85 | 22.1% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 4.77 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs ATL | 4.76 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs SD | 4.68 | 22.2% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs ATH | 4.62 | 24.7% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 2 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BOS | 4.50 | 23.1% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs LAA | 4.35 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Kai-Wei Teng
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BAL | 4.25 | 25.0% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs AZ | 4.18 | 20.6% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 2 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.06 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs PHI | 3.88 | 21.1% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 3.70 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TOR | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs DET | 3.48 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs CHC | 3.48 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs CLE | 3.46 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAD | 3.20 | 17.0% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.19 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.