Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATL | 6.49 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs CWS | 5.92 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 5.91 | 29.7% | 32.2% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 5 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs HOU | 5.48 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIA | 5.08 | 23.6% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 4 |
Edward Cabrera
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 5.06 | 22.2% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Trevor McDonald
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 4.83 | 22.9% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 4.66 | 19.7% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 4.46 | 22.1% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 4.39 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Jr. Ritchie
Probable starter
|
ATL vs SEA | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs LAA | 3.97 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TB | 3.89 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs TOR | 3.84 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 3.80 | 20.6% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 2 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs DET | 3.67 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs PHI | 3.58 | 17.0% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Steven Okert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs LAD | 3.57 | 22.1% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Chase Petty
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 3.49 | 21.4% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 0 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs NYM | 3.41 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 3.30 | 19.1% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Holton
Probable starter
|
DET vs BOS | 3.06 | 23.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 11.3 | 10 | 0 |
Huascar Brazobán
Probable starter
|
NYM vs COL | 2.93 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 12.9 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.