Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 220 lb · Age 27

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024256.521010049.2461.63
20258115.3028280156.11311.39
2026543.151515088.2731.14
5 Seasons29284.3394930523.14251.32
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
71
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal6 metrics
36
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-15
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace2.66
ERA rolling p503.44
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.37 2.88 3.44 4.01 4.52
FIP
3.29 3.54 3.83 4.11 4.37
K%
18.2% 19.3% 20.6% 21.9% 23.1%
BB%
6.1% 6.8% 7.5% 8.3% 8.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-15
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.06
83
ERA2.66
81
BB%7.3%
70
K%20.7%
37
xwOBA allowed0.275
83 +42 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.7%
92 +47 vs proj
Fastball velo92.0
17
Hard-hit allowed38.9%
51
Whiff%20.2%
27 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-15
Fastball Stuff+101
43
Mithrandir Stuff+101
42
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+100
41
Changeup Stuff+95
12
Cutter Stuff+100
30
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Elder, Bryce · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.275 2026-06-04: 0.2782026-06-05: 0.2782026-06-06: 0.2782026-06-07: 0.2782026-06-08: 0.2752026-06-09: 0.2752026-06-10: 0.2752026-06-11: 0.2752026-06-12: 0.2752026-06-13: 0.2752026-06-14: 0.2752026-06-15: 0.275 2026-06-04 2026-06-15 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Elder, Bryce · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot Slider: 28.5%4-Seam Fastball: 25.0%Sinker: 24.7%Cutter: 12.3%Changeup: 9.5% SL29% · 83 mphprimary pitch SL 29%FF 25%SI 25%FC 12%CH 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Elder, Bryce · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Slider: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mph4-Seam Fastball: 25% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSinker: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mphCutter: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 88.7 mphFC89 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 85.7 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 27.8% 311 100 qualified
SI 25.4% 285 102 qualified
FB 24.6% 275 101 qualified
FC 12.4% 139 100 limited sample
CH 9.8% 110 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight220 lb
Debut2022-04-12
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-2.09
K% Δ+0.005

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.271
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.275

Elder’s wOBA-against sits at 0.271, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.275 — a gap of 0.004, -0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 84 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-05-274-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.2% K | 4.75 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 @ WSH3 ER / 6 K6.2 IP
2026-04-15 vs MIA0 ER / 7 K5.2 IP
2026-04-04 @ AZ0 ER / 8 K7.0 IP
2026-03-30 vs ATH0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP