Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Carmen Mlodzinski

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 210 lb · Age 27

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024553.38404050.2461.18
2025583.553412099.0891.30
2026873.9237122121.2951.37
4 Seasons21233.51146293307.12641.31
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal6 metrics
70
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace3.90
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight69%
ERA
2.69 3.22 3.81 4.40 4.93
FIP
3.07 3.43 3.82 4.22 4.57
K%
16.6% 17.6% 18.8% 20.0% 21.1%
BB%
6.4% 7.1% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
41
ERA3.90
55
BB%8.0%
62
K%17.5%
17 -25 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.339
23 -39 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.0%
58
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed46.4%
5
Whiff%18.8%
18 -25 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+103
63
Sinker Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+103
58
Curveball Stuff+106
94
Cutter Stuff+107
96
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mlodzinski, Carmen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.339 2026-09-12: 0.3422026-09-13: 0.3422026-09-14: 0.3402026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3392026-09-25: 0.3392026-09-26: 0.339 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mlodzinski, Carmen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 51%51%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.3%Split-Finger: 25.3%Sinker: 18.1%Curveball: 11.6%Sweeper: 10.6%Cutter: 4.6% FF26% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 26%FS 25%SI 18%CU 12%ST 11%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.8 mphFS86 mphSinker: 18% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.8 mphCU84 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphST83 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 92.2 mphFC92 mphSlider: 4% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.1% 398 100 qualified
SI 25.1% 284 105 qualified
SL 20.7% 235 103 qualified
CB 15.1% 171 106 limited sample
FC 4.0% 45 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight210 lb
Debut2023-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.37
K% Δ-0.035

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.323
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.339

Mlodzinski’s wOBA-against sits at 0.323, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.339 — a gap of 0.017, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 120 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-08-174-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.0% K | 3.53 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ STL0 ER / 1 K5.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs WSH0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs BAL2 ER / 5 K4.2 IP
2026-03-29 @ NYM2 ER / 8 K4.1 IP