Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Carmen Mlodzinski

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 210 lb · Age 27

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024553.38404050.2461.18
2025583.553412099.0891.30
2026633.24209280.2641.36
4 Seasons19193.24129263266.12331.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
44
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal5 metrics
65
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.61
ERA current pace3.24
ERA rolling p503.39
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.33 2.83 3.39 3.95 4.46
FIP
3.01 3.35 3.73 4.10 4.44
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.7% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.8% 8.6% 9.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.38
40
ERA3.24
71
BB%8.0%
61
K%18.3%
21 -18 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
27 -34 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.5%
54
Fastball velo94.8
55
Hard-hit allowed46.5%
7
Whiff%18.5%
14 -24 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+100
31
Mithrandir Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+103
61
Curveball Stuff+105
96
Slider Stuff+105
76
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Mlodzinski, Carmen · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-07-06: 0.3372026-07-07: 0.3372026-07-08: 0.3372026-07-09: 0.3332026-07-10: 0.3332026-07-11: 0.3332026-07-12: 0.3332026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3372026-07-15: 0.3372026-07-16: 0.3372026-07-17: 0.337 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 28%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Mlodzinski, Carmen · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.1%Split-Finger: 25.4%Sinker: 17.4%Curveball: 12.1%Sweeper: 10.6%Slider: 5.0% FF28% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 28%FS 25%SI 17%CU 12%ST 11%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Mlodzinski, Carmen · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 28% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.0 mphFF95 mphSplit-Finger: 25% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 85.6 mphFS86 mphSinker: 17% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCurveball: 12% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 83.9 mphCU84 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 83.5 mphST84 mphSlider: 5% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 90.6 mphSL91 mphCutter: 1% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 92.5 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 37.4% 318 100 qualified
SI 24.7% 210 103 qualified
SL 22.5% 191 105 limited sample
CB 15.4% 131 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 2"
Weight210 lb
Debut2023-06-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.29
K% Δ-0.026

negative regression

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.320
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.337

Mlodzinski’s wOBA-against sits at 0.320, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.337 — a gap of 0.017, -0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 80 IP. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-05-254-Seam Fastball played up through FF/FS tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.9% K | 3.53 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ STL0 ER / 1 K5.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs WSH0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP
2026-04-04 vs BAL2 ER / 5 K4.2 IP
2026-03-29 @ NYM2 ER / 8 K4.1 IP