Mithrandir Metrics
Player Tampa Bay Rays Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Tampa Bay Rays

Steven Matz

P · Bats/Throws R/L · 6' 2", 205 lb · Age 35

Cards
13
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Tampa Bay Rays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024125.08127044.1331.44
2025523.05532276.2591.10
2026665.493611180.1611.23
12 Seasons66684.2928218331084.210011.30
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
37
Arsenal5 metrics
63
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason4.09
ERA current pace5.56
ERA rolling p504.97
Observed weight60%
ERA
3.82 4.37 4.97 5.58 6.12
FIP
4.03 4.34 4.68 5.02 5.33
K%
15.7% 16.8% 18.1% 19.3% 20.5%
BB%
5.3% 6.0% 6.7% 7.4% 8.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.22
69
ERA5.56
17
BB%7.2%
74 -15 vs proj
K%18.1%
21
xwOBA allowed0.342
20
Barrel allowed10.5%
11 -34 vs proj
Fastball velo93.6
37
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
69
Whiff%18.6%
16
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+102
50
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Sinker Stuff+105
71
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Slider Stuff+101
44
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Matz, Steven · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.342 2026-09-13: 0.3452026-09-14: 0.3452026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3402026-09-25: 0.3402026-09-26: 0.3432026-09-27: 0.342 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 50%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Matz, Steven · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 51%51%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 49.9%Changeup: 28.5%Curveball: 13.1%Slider: 8.3%Cutter: 0.2% SI50% · 94 mphprimary pitch SI 50%CH 28%CU 13%SL 8%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Matz, Steven · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 50% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.6 mphSI94 mphChangeup: 28% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 83.1 mphCH83 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.8 mphCU79 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 82.6 mphSL83 mphCutter: 0% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.2 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 50.7% 540 105 qualified
CH 28.5% 303 102 qualified
CB 11.5% 123 104 limited sample
SL 9.3% 99 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age35
Height6' 2"
Weight205 lb
Debut2015-06-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.95
K% Δ+0.008

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.345
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.342

Matz’s wOBA-against sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.342 — a gap of 0.003, 0.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 85 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching132026-08-14Changeup played up through CH/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202617.3% K | 4.61 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs BAL1 ER / 5 K4.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ MIN1 ER / 8 K6.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ STL4 ER / 2 K5.0 IP