Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 6.80 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 5 | 5 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TOR | 6.24 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 5 | 5 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIL | 5.45 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 4 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PHI | 5.31 | 28.0% | 26.6% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 2 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 5.30 | 27.3% | 28.5% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 7 | 3 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs PIT | 5.29 | 25.8% | 28.4% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs HOU | 5.16 | 22.1% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 5 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 5.11 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs BAL | 4.97 | 19.7% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 5 | 3 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 4.93 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 5 | 4 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs TEX | 4.60 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CWS | 4.57 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 7 | 3 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.45 | 21.1% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 7 | 3 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 4.39 | 19.3% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 3 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CLE | 4.31 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 5 | 1 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYM | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kyle Backhus
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CHC | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIN | 4.24 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 7 | 3 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs CIN | 4.16 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 5 | 4 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs AZ | 4.14 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.11 | 19.4% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 5 | 4 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs LAA | 3.89 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs STL | 3.89 | 17.0% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 4 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 3.72 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 5 | 3 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs KC | 3.71 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 5 | 4 |
Brandon Williamson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TB | 3.61 | 18.2% | 15.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 4 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIA | 3.50 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 5 | 4 |
Dl Hall
Probable starter
|
MIL vs DET | 3.46 | 22.3% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Didier Fuentes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 3.16 | 20.5% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 0 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 3.10 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.