Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CHC | 6.64 | 28.9% | 32.3% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 2 |
Dylan Cease
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIL | 6.39 | 29.0% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 7 | 2 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 6.17 | 26.9% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 2 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs AZ | 6.14 | 29.0% | 34.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 7 | 2 |
Shohei Ohtani
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYM | 5.09 | 25.0% | 26.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 7 | 2 |
Bryce Elder
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 4.97 | 22.3% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIN | 4.79 | 26.5% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs COL | 4.70 | 22.3% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 0 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.59 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 0 |
Chad Patrick
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TOR | 4.43 | 22.7% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 1 |
Luis Gil
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 4.43 | 20.8% | 14.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BOS | 4.43 | 19.8% | 24.6% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 4.39 | 20.8% | 21.2% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 6 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PHI | 4.37 | 23.2% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 2 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SF | 4.34 | 19.7% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 3 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs BAL | 4.32 | 18.3% | 16.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 2 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs CLE | 4.29 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Jesse Scholtens
Probable starter
|
TB vs CWS | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TB | 4.19 | 20.8% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 7 | 1 |
Slade Cecconi
Probable starter
|
CLE vs STL | 4.19 | 21.6% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 2 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 3.96 | 20.1% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs CIN | 3.94 | 20.5% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 7 | 2 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SD | 3.88 | 22.1% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs SEA | 3.78 | 17.9% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 2 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
NYM vs LAD | 3.62 | 18.8% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 2 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 3.59 | 19.8% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 3.54 | 20.1% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 1 |
Jose Quintana
Probable starter
|
COL vs HOU | 3.14 | 16.9% | 15.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs NYY | 2.90 | 17.3% | 13.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.