Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Rhett Lowder

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 1", 200 lb · Age 24

Cards
13
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024221.1766030.2221.27
2026364.911613069.2591.54
2 Seasons583.7722190100.1811.46
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
21
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
24
Arsenal5 metrics
61
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.20
ERA current pace4.91
ERA rolling p504.19
Observed weight58%
ERA
2.57 3.34 4.19 5.05 5.82
FIP
2.66 3.44 4.31 5.18 5.97
K%
15.6% 17.2% 18.8% 20.5% 22.0%
BB%
7.7% 8.5% 9.5% 10.5% 11.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.53
15
ERA4.91
27
BB%10.5%
29
K%18.6%
24 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.357
12 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.0%
29 -44 vs proj
Fastball velo92.9
25
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
35
Whiff%19.1%
18 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+104
67
Sinker Stuff+105
75
Slider Stuff+104
65
Changeup Stuff+106
76
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lowder, Rhett · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.357 2026-07-05: 0.3602026-07-06: 0.3572026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3592026-07-11: 0.3592026-07-12: 0.3592026-07-13: 0.3592026-07-14: 0.3572026-07-15: 0.3572026-07-16: 0.357 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lowder, Rhett · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 30.2%Slider: 27.1%4-Seam Fastball: 22.3%Changeup: 20.4% SI30% · 93 mphprimary pitch SI 30%SL 27%FF 22%CH 20% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lowder, Rhett · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.6 mphSI93 mphSlider: 27% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 84.8 mphSL85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 22% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 93.3 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 20% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 86.2 mphCH86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 30.2% 273 105 qualified
SL 27.8% 251 104 qualified
FB 22.3% 201 98 qualified
CH 19.7% 178 106 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age24
Height6' 1"
Weight200 lb
Debut2024-08-30
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.81
K% Δ-0.032

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.5σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.371
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.357

Lowder’s wOBA-against sits at 0.371, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.357 — a gap of 0.014, 0.5 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 73 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching132026-06-30Slider played up through SL/SI tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.8% K | 4.10 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 @ TB1 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-04-15 vs SF3 ER / 4 K6.2 IP
2026-04-09 @ MIA4 ER / 2 K5.1 IP
2026-04-04 @ TEX0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs BOS2 ER / 5 K5.0 IP