Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs TOR | 6.66 | 33.3% | 32.4% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 7 | 3 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 6.16 | 30.5% | 32.1% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 6 | 3 |
Cole Ragans
Probable starter
|
KC vs DET | 6.06 | 31.3% | 36.7% | 22.4% | 13.7 | 6 | 3 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYM | 5.86 | 25.0% | 25.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 7 | 3 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIL | 5.85 | 29.3% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 7 | 3 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CHC | 5.83 | 23.9% | 24.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 6 | 2 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs LAD | 5.62 | 28.2% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 5 | 3 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs KC | 5.41 | 20.1% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 17.6 | 6 | 3 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs STL | 5.35 | 27.4% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 2 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs CIN | 5.31 | 25.3% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 7 | 3 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIN | 5.29 | 22.3% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 6 | 2 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs SEA | 5.28 | 23.7% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 3 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SD | 5.12 | 22.9% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 6 | 2 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 5.10 | 23.6% | 24.2% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 5 | 3 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.93 | 22.7% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 2 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs SF | 4.86 | 22.0% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 6 | 2 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs AZ | 4.84 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 7 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs WSH | 4.68 | 19.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 2 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TB | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Max Meyer
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 4.56 | 22.3% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 3 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 4.48 | 22.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 7 | 2 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs BAL | 4.32 | 22.0% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 0 |
Mick Abel
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BOS | 4.32 | 21.1% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 5 | 2 |
Riley Martin
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PHI | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs NYY | 4.18 | 20.4% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 2 |
Colton Gordon
Probable starter
|
HOU vs COL | 4.11 | 20.4% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs CWS | 3.95 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 8 | 2 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CLE | 3.54 | 16.2% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 2 |
Miles Mikolas
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 3.24 | 16.7% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 6 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.