Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable starter
|
BOS vs MIN | 7.23 | 30.2% | 29.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 6 | 3 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CHC | 6.39 | 27.5% | 30.9% | 22.4% | 17.6 | 6 | 3 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs STL | 5.95 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 3 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs WSH | 5.86 | 27.0% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 3 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 5.76 | 23.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 6 | 3 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATH | 5.56 | 25.4% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 6 | 3 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 5.39 | 22.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 5 | 3 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAA | 5.38 | 23.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 5 | 2 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs NYY | 5.28 | 23.4% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 3 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs TEX | 4.93 | 22.3% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 3 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 4.89 | 25.0% | 32.2% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 5 | 2 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 4.62 | 22.9% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
NYM vs LAD | 4.47 | 21.5% | 20.6% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 5 | 2 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs BOS | 4.35 | 18.4% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 5 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CLE | 4.27 | 17.9% | 19.1% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 6 | 3 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs BAL | 4.13 | 20.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 5 | 3 |
Justin Wrobleski
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYM | 4.04 | 18.7% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 7 | 1 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs PIT | 3.61 | 19.1% | 19.2% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 6 | 3 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PHI | 3.50 | 18.7% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.